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-Action: High house prices in the industrialized lever

National Unification Council to disclose the latest data show that in 2009 the acquisition of domestic real estate development company land area shrink by 18.9%, 19.9% decline to complete the development area, housing area and completed the construction area grew by 12.8% and 5.5%, while sales surged 42.1% area , in which area home sales increase 80% … …

More extreme imbalance between supply and demand data, the trend indicates this year’s prices are still strong, despite the recent significant price decline of individual cities.

After rising sharply last year, the national average commercial housing price (sales / marketing area) from 3,877 yuan per square meter the previous year rose to 4,695 yuan. Should be said, compared to 2008 disposable income of urban families 16,000 yuan, it is indeed a very high levels. Sensibility that now used in Beijing to sell a house, enough to buy a nice villa the United States, in Italy, bought several acres of farmland with several farm homes.

However, even though I oppose the price is too high, but from another perspective, the high price is not necessarily a bad thing.

In the previous article, I have mentioned, the land of output efficiency, the so-called industrialization, is actually a continuous process of improving land productivity and efficiency, and continuously reduce non-agricultural land, agricultural land and output efficiency gap process, or urban-rural income gap smaller and smaller process (worse, the last 15 years, the domestic income gap between urban and rural areas are not getting smaller and smaller, but growing. Now the gap than even the founding of the beginning of even more than before liberation large). Almost all countries the process of industrialization, rising house prices in the city are subject to progressive, high prices and low there’s imbalance. Extended a little further, it is said that the industrialization of high prices is the lever.

The difference is, with most of the countries traversed the road of industrialization than the current high prices of the industrialization process of China’s high leverage is unprecedented. This determines that China can take advantage of high prices to speed up the process of industrialization. In Beijing, every now sold a house as large as 2 million yuan output value can be achieved, including at least 70% or 130 million, an increase in value, or 50% of revenue and 20% of the operating surplus. Given prices comparable to first-tier cities in China’s richest countries, while peasant incomes comparable to the poorest countries (this is the great irony of China’s industrialization), the Government can Liyong huge gains from the real estate market, in efforts to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, while accelerating economic growth.

Another important difference is that most of the industrialized countries with high rates of leverage through private ownership of land or a disguised private, and private investment in this pathway. The Chinese government monopoly of the land, decided that only the government can achieve this leverage.

Unfortunately, so far, the Government has not yet aware of the high prices is to the industrialization of the leverage effect, despite years of government revenue increasing reliance on real estate market, including the rapid rise of the land transfer proceeds as well as various aspects of the flow tax, income tax.

Correct approach is that the Government should take full advantage of high prices to speed up the efficiency of conversion of land, and take full advantage of rapid growth of the land revenue to further promote the conversion. As a result, not only meet the increasing domestic demand for residents, the release of the growth potential of domestic demand, more importantly, you can narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, and thus achieve sustainable economic development.

What I mean is that given the high rates of industrialization, the lever, the Chinese economy is not healthy growth, urban-rural income gap can not be quickly reduced, it is the Government’s capacity problems.

Qing Yi: Land in the financial, land finance what has been the

On these short years The Economist, Andy Xie, the first number count. Some say a word in his three “bubble.” Unfortunately, ever since he was years ago, asserted that domestic property bubble about to burst, the price has quadrupled.

Only from this point of view, Xie’s not enough solid economic foundation. Is not it? Among the orthodox economics, the so-called bubble, is that price increases had accelerated sharply following the fall, it simply is not sustainable prices. Now that prices have gone up further up, he calls the “bubble”, what things really are! I am afraid Bacheng saliva are the stars.

Any described as a “term” of the word, have a specific meaning, otherwise is not science. It should be said, Xie on the “bubble” word of the very strict interpretation, less injury of his own academic career, even worse, a large number of followers is misleading. Consequently, the “bubble” flying into the media for a visit.

Xie said recently that half of government revenue from the property industry, alluding to the financial model can not be sustained. It reminds me of the old saying: there is land as wealth.

British sages said: The land is the mother of wealth, labor is the father of wealth. This phrase can do much to explain. In any case, the same land as the productivity of the labor factor, is not tolerate misleading.

Yes, the land is productive.

Rather, the “Land in the wealth” is the ancient sages (of seniority in the family, probably more than the United Kingdom earlier than fathers, or at least 20 generations in 2000) theory of sovereign economies, financial summary of the most brilliant. Can not do without all the land of output, output growth, in turn, promoted the proliferation of land, while the land under the authority of course, is the main source of revenue.

Only in respect of China’s economy, the land as productive, have different roles in different periods, and never lose its importance.

The early days, China’s GDP, more than half of the primary industry, the importance of the land that time we can see, if not the next.

Nearly three decades, while agriculture and efficiency improvement, albeit rather slowly, to make a large acreage on the same output of food, from the initial 305 million tons to 550 million tons today. It is worth noting that in 245 million tons of total grain output which has 100 million tons was formed last 8 years, since 2002, total domestic food production increased by nearly 20%, but the total population over the same period increased by only 4.23 cumulative %.

Similarly, the recent 8 years, the primary industry added value of total GDP is only 2.15 trillion yuan, while the second and third industries to increase the value of the cumulative total GDP was as high as 18.62 trillion yuan. When we say all the outputs are actually inseparable from the land, he must recognize that land used for non-agricultural industries, output efficiency is far greater than agriculture. In fact, in view of the developed countries primary industry accounted for 2% of GDP, however, and now China is 11% less than the future of China’s land for non-agricultural output efficiency have a considerable room for improvement.

This regard that according to the 2021 China’s total population of 1.387 billion people in the peak, after entering at least 80 years of negative growth cycle, to 2100 the total population of less than 560 million people of authority population projections, China will continue to increase food production efforts need not, should rather be to continue efforts to improve yield or to increase organic food production efforts. On the other hand, in order to continue to improve land productivity and efficiency, we must be more land for non-agricultural projects, housing industry, including of course.

Viewed from another angle, yesterday I said: In recent years, an increase of the value of the domestic household savings fluctuate significantly. According to data provided by the central bank website, the 2006 value of 2.05 trillion yuan increase, to 2007 dropped significantly from 1.09 trillion yuan, while in 2008 and then surged to 4.54 trillion yuan. Why an increase of the value of domestic household savings will be like a tree monkey as Shangcuanxiatiao? Results of the analysis is that this is the relationship between commercial housing sales data are very close. From the state bureau of statistics, China has experienced residential sales increased slightly in 2006, the 2007 rate of increase jumped to 46.5%, while in 2008 an increase of -20.1%. It would appear that household savings are mainly used for Sellers not too little.

Since savings are the future consumption, since household savings are mainly used for house purchase, then, the government ignored the reality, of course, unforgivable mistake.

So, in my view, the land of domestic finance, there is no point in the general direction of the problem. Problem is that the Government should be revenue from the property market further focus on investment in domestic industries, build more houses also allow developers to develop more projects to meet the growing purchasing Guomin needs while making money with money, relying on the efficiency of conversion of land to non-agricultural and industrial structure and further aggregation to win more revenue, more good run for the country.

Policies to enrich the feed and clothe not get away. Ask the people, not the individual side of house, feed and clothe operator enriching it!

Hand, scholars can rely on saliva Xingzi living, to seek truth from facts, words must be rigorous, but also to pursue post verifiable. Verification can not be nonsense.