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-Action: the last three years the proportion of bank loans for the houses, an average of only 2 percent

In recent years, an increase of the value of domestic household savings fluctuate significantly. According to data provided by the central bank website, the 2006 value of 2.05 trillion yuan increase, to 2007 dropped significantly from 1.09 trillion yuan, while in 2008 and then surged to 4.54 trillion yuan.

Why an increase of the value of domestic household savings will be like a tree monkey as Shangcuanxiatiao? Results of the analysis is that this is the relationship between commercial housing sales data are very close. From the state bureau of statistics, China has experienced residential sales increased slightly in 2006, the 2007 rate of increase jumped to 46.5%, while in 2008 an increase of -20.1%. It would appear that household savings are mainly used for Sellers not too little.

It is noteworthy that in 2008 domestic sales of domestic reason for such significant decline was mainly due to the financial crisis is not subject to outside influence, but the central bank from 2007 to December 21 of the several interest rate, commercial banks will be self-employed individual housing lending rate of 5.31% from the 2004 and 2005 to 6.12% significantly increased to 8.61%. Such a high mortgage interest rates, even if playing Jiuzhe, also means that the two settled into a down payment after 20 years together, the residents of the total debt service is equivalent to more than double the loan principal. This of course will be a severe blow to the enthusiasm of residents of purchase, the money can only deposit banks.

However, the central bank in 2007 excessive increases in interest rates in individual housing loans, in addition to domestic sales led to a substantial shrinkage of the domestic but also had another effect, which is the annual commercial banks to increase the value of individual housing loans and new loans in the year the same year, China accounted for the proportion of domestic sales (hereinafter referred to as "the year of exposure the houses") were significantly shrink. This is the proportion of buyers among the residents of the whole section up the results, but the whole paragraph is not necessarily a part of borrowing from banks other than (their business model see my previous Bowen: "must raise interest rates for mortgage loans to promote" conversion of silver "" ).

To Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, for example, 08 new individual housing loans 61.0 billion, compared with 126.1 billion yuan over the previous year, declining by as much as 52%. In the meantime, to 2008 sales of 2.04 trillion yuan of domestic residential computing, industrial and commercial bank "loans to the houses, the proportion of the year," only 2.99%, and in 2007 accounted for 4.93%.

With Industrial and Commercial Bank of China of the above, should be able to calculate all the commercial banks, "loans that year the proportion of the houses," the important data. As the domestic housing loans concentrated in industry, in construction of three lines, and other joint-stock banks, of which ICBC transaction volume to account for 22% of the total transactions, whereby all commercial banks in 2008 "the year the proportion of loans for the houses," should be less than 15%, in 2007 the level is merely 25%.

While in September 2008 after the central bank to gradually come to realize significant reduction in individual housing loan interest rates, and to offer a higher discount, does the promotion of commercial banks in 2009 new housing loans quick recovery, but according to my analysis, in 2009 the "year house sales exposure, "but a return to 2007 levels, which is about 25%.

That being said, the last three years, domestic commercial banks, "loans to the houses, then the proportion of" no more than 22%.

It should be said, both for the central bank, commercial banks, or developers, and residents of participating buyers, this is an important indicator of a help to decision-making.

The central bank is concerned, since the bank "year of exposure houses," so low down-payment ratio by limiting two suites to regulate domestic demand and the price is low efficiency. For commercial banks concerned, "the year of exposure the houses," the decline, in fact means that the domestic private lending for housing growth. The central bank and commercial banks must understand that to raise interest rates once again, there will be more mortgage loans from the bank lending flows Minjian, and in "the year the houses, loans Bili" After falling further weaken the monetary policy and the banking system Guonei residential Shi Chang influence.

The developer is concerned, the lower bank "loans that year the proportion of the houses," meaning how to encourage and strive for a higher proportion of all home buyers section will be that they build for the future of real estate development financing system of the main direction. Only in this way, developers can get rid of monetary policy and banking from the heavy shackles.

Residents in terms of participating buyers, the domestic household disposable assets increased year after year, under the circumstances, the use of mutual aid among relatives and friends to reduce borrowing for house purchase costs and the cost, obviously much more cost effective than the bank loan.

Of course, the above also implies that the domestic private hot money is not scarce, as you can into the property market, as long as the opportunity to mature into the stock market may not.

-Action: raise interest rates for housing mortgage loans is bound to "silver turn to the people"

Years ago Beijing set off a second-hand housing transactions boom, I scrambled the fun back. The houses, I gained a lot of knowledge. Buyer is a middle-aged couple from northwest China, is said to arrange for his son to Beijing to develop a foothold. I was surprised how much is actually paid by the other side is the entire paragraph. Under repeated inquired and learned that the couple have a public, not really very rich, the money mostly to buy a house just about friends and relatives.

Man of the house said to me, really can not afford to pay the full amount, but, instead of paying high interest to the bank, it is better to leave the family an opportunity to make money. In accordance with the bank deposit and loan spreads are calculated, friends and relatives at least 2.5 percentage points of spread income, the so-called outsiders field must not let opportunities.

Intermediary hearing about a similar situation is far from rare. I know that last year's transactions, commercial housing and bank mortgage, but the proportion accounted for more than two percent. Estimate the number of intermediaries is Kaopu if the.

I remember a few years ago, China had a very domineering central bank vice governor told the media: Do not game with the central bank. Why? Since it is a market economy, not to have different interests between the main game! Do you started this, people do 15, it is inevitable.

Borrowing in the past mainly in the business field, the corresponding risk is much greater. Today, there are umbrella of the central bank tightening to do, coupled with the mortgage bank to ensure the safety of rigid bottom so there is price for commercial housing in the private lending fast, and does great background.

For home buyers, it is clear paragraph to pay all transaction costs can be reduced, after all, total expenditure on higher mortgage can reach 20 years of commercial housing transaction price of 1.8 times.

Private loans for housing, credit terms, its income is obvious. To put it plainly, its business model is "determined to eat bank": your bank's home mortgage loans how high income, I have thick earnings.

However, for banks, the private lending for commercial housing, no doubt on the existing commercial banks personal housing mortgage loan system constitutes the impact of the more developed private lending, the greater the impact on banks.

I have no doubt that the central bank once the order into the new domestic rate hike cycle, the private lending for commercial housing will be closely followed and a higher position.

The amount of domestic sales of commercial property last year to 4.57 trillion, the amount of second-hand housing transactions has doubled to 1.5 trillion, the two combined 6.07 trillion. Such a huge market space, adequate development of the private lending. Not expected 5-year, commercial banks personal housing mortgage loans in the domestic market, the share of which is destined to decline.

This in turn would constitute what the Chinese financial impact?

Among other things, it can be concluded that the failure of monetary policy will be increasingly on the domestic financial market more and more dominant role is being undermined.

Equality before the yuan. Until we are all rich, then what the balance of interest are always a handful of people manipulating it!

On the domestic commercial housing mortgage loans, "Bank transfer to the people", here is a concept first put forward, it is worth taking in-depth discussion.