Relations between the real estate from the variable impact on the economy

October 19th, 2010

-Action: The Relationship between variables influence on the economy of real estate

No matter what is in favor of or opposed to what should be reasonable, be logically correct, factually correct.

What is the relationship between variables? Variable relations in mathematics, also known as topology, that is an object of continuous deformation in space and time attached to the relationship between different variables. On the macro-economic terms, is to observe the major variables that affect the GDP, analysis of these variables and the relationship between GDP growth.

Let’s look at the situation in 2008. 2008 GDP growth of 9.6%, down sharply over the 3.4 percent growth rate. Growth factor specific to the investment in fixed assets rose 25.5%, 0.7 percentage points over the previous year; the growth of total social retail 21.6%, 4.8 percentage points over the previous year; exports grew 7.24%, an increase of 13.21 percent over the previous year down . Only from these variables, it seems that lead to economic slowdown is mainly due to the export slowdown, or by the financial crisis.

However, if the notes in 2008 annual sales of new homes fell by 34.92 percent, while an increase of 13.5% over the previous year; noted that in 2008 the newly built commercial housing sales, declining by 19.5%, while an increase of 42.1% over the previous year; noted that the central bank had previously illogical personal mortgage interest rates significantly increased to 8.61%, it is not difficult to draw conclusions: in 2008 China’s economic slowdown led to the real reason is that real estate over-tightening policy in a substantial decline.

Look at the situation again in 2009. 2009 GDP growth of 8.7%, down 0.9 percentage points over the previous year; fixed asset investment grew 30.1%, 4.6 percentage points over the previous year to speed up; social retail sales grew 15.5%, down 6.1 percentage points over the previous year; exports -16% , down 23.24 percentage points over the previous year; but only 82.8% of sales of commercial property (in 2009 4.4 trillion, in 2008 2.41 trillion), second-hand housing sales increase of more than 200% is.

For whom, we can not deny that real estate in today’s pillar industry of China’s economic role, unless he is a nerd, is subjective dogmatist, or ignorance, and emotional elements. My words are strong enough, but the character dictates, can not be changed. What men say, of course, sonorous, powerful, can not be submissive.

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How the debt crisis affected China, Greece

October 13th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

By the rating agencies lowered the Greek sovereign credit rating to junk long-term impact of the external market in general fell sharply. However, in the domestic banking sector, petroleum and petrochemical sector growth in support of a quarter, the A shares Xianyihouyang today. To the closing stock index reporting 2,900.33 points, slightly 0.26%.

Could see, A shares on a major message from the external market is not sensitive. Indeed, over the debt crisis is expected to Greece’s negative impact on China’s economy, hardly wise.

The reason why Greece is highly concerned about the debt crisis, because the country has seen in the sovereign debt crisis, not only for its cast a shadow over the domestic economic outlook, but also for the euro’s future uncertain. Greece, the real debt crisis more euro crisis. Euro problem is inherent. And sovereignty, monetary and financial systems and monetary systems were combined, and woe in a different situation, as a regional common currency euro, is not to establish a unified financial system in the same over. Thus, any member of the financial system problems, the effects will spread across borders of other member countries and the euro’s fate. While Germany had the intention of the Greek out of euro zone countries, but also make the euro hurt. To a large extent, the euro quickly became the reason why the international reserve currency, with its close ties expansion prospects.

Euro by Greece is facing a debt crisis is difficult to be alleviated through continued depreciation, as people worry about the prospect of the dollar level of no better than the weak euro. People will eventually believe that the dollar Ye Hao, euro worth mentioning, among them the status of the international monetary system will continue to weaken both.

This is precisely the point. I prefer to believe, the Greek international debt crisis will accelerate the process of the yuan, but on the price of RMB internationalization of the yuan revaluation (fish and bear’s paw can not have both), so the impact on China will first be achieved through the appreciation of the renminbi of.

By the way, the central bank recently the so-called “interest rate and exchange rate will be fixed one,” saying it was to the effect, because the interest rate and not a substitute for appreciation, it touches will further increase the upward pressure, while the interest rate rise does fit relieve the pressure. That being said, the recent appreciation of the RMB is much larger than expected rate hike expectations.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) or two up five. Jiangling Motors and Hefei Urban Construction were up 3.07% and 1.26%. Today, once short-listed Weichai Power Dikaigaozou morning, after being sold and closing edged lower 0.25%. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the last trading day of -12.53% to -11.12%, the cumulative increase of 15 nice rebound from 32.29% to 34.42%. Thus, the beautiful 15 from September 1, 2009 the cumulative increase since the main stock index has been 4.26 times increase over the same period, despite the recent performance as expected.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 28
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)

000528
Liugong 21.57 20.97 -2.78 8.8
2.39 (10 expected)

000550 JMC 22.84
3.07 10.0
2.28 (10 expected)

600449
Racing Industry 35.23 26.40 -25.06 11.6
2.28

000961
South Building 19.35 15.04 -22.27 6.9
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 22.70 -15.68 13.5
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction
22.70
-14.89 16.8
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338
Weichai Power
60.97
-0.25
8.17.50 (10 expected)

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average -11.12 10.8

“Beautiful 15″ 51.24 34.42

Beautiful 15 leading index 304. 74%
326.52% (4.2652-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 2900.33
8.07

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Heavyweight stabilized

October 9th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Bank shares in the first quarter by four percent to encourage performance EADS were mixed today, A shares open higher in the afternoon again pulled up, helpless and subject shares late small plates bad news fast by hazy edge lower, weighed on the market under pressure. To the closing stock index reported 2868.43 points, down 1.10%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) or a suspension of a rose 5. Hefei Urban Construction up 2.03%. After three consecutive trading days up heavy volume after the Jiangling Motors today shrinkage adjustment, although the decline and closing up 8.06%, but volume can be relations, is expected to re-market outlook is still strong. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the last trading day of -11.12% to -12.98%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful down from 34.42% to 31.61%, a beautiful 15 from September 1, 2009 since cumulative gains for the main stock index rise of 4.59 times over the same period.

From tomorrow, the third of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) and then there are new faces, short-listed for the sustainable growth of the constituent stocks is full of Fukuda car. A Quarterly Bulletin revealed that various types of vehicle sales in the company rose 47% last year based on the further sharp increase of 42.9%. Operating income increased as the clear leader in operating costs increase, profit margin expansion, net profit rose 179%, report 0.566 yuan per share, is the 2009 half-year earnings per share of 1.15 times. In a number of construction project will be put into the case, expects a capacity planning problem will be better this year, the annual earnings per share of 2.26 yuan a breakthrough possible, the current dynamic price-earnings ratio is only 8.9 times.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 29
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)

000528
Liugong 21.57 20.43 -5.28 8.5
2.39 (10 expected)

000550 JMC 21.00 -5.23
9.2
2.28 (10 expected)

600449
Racing Industry 35.23 26.40 -25.06 11.6
2.28

000961
South Building 19.35 14.97 -22.64 6.9
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 22.11 -17.87 13.2
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction
23.16
-13.16 17.2
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338
Weichai Power
60.14
-1.60
8.07.50 (10 expected)
600 166
FOTON
20.11
8.9
2.26 (10 expected)

(Which, due to short-listed at different times, Jiangling Motors, Hefei Urban Construction, Weichai Power and Fukuda benchmark price of motor vehicles were 22.16 yuan, 26.67 yuan, 61.12 yuan and 20.11 yuan)

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average -12.98 10.4

“Beautiful 15″ 51.24
31.61

Beautiful 15 leading index
304.74%
359.45% (4.5945-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 2868.43 6.88

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Debt risk is overestimated

September 7th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 newsletter

Domestic revenues to the GDP ratio is 20% or 40% or more? This is obviously a big problem. From the state bureau of statistics, in 1978 and 2009, fiscal revenue ratio of the GDP were 31.1% and 20.4%. Intuitively, this ratio is significantly decreased. However, always look at the issue directly, I am afraid that many problems can makes mistakes. A stone and a piece of jade of the blocks containing, visually see all the stone, but they are essentially different.

According to World Bank statistics, in 2006 the central government revenue on the world average GDP ratio is 26.9%, 27.3% developed countries. However, the same countries, the United States is only 19.3%, while France and Britain but were as high as 43.0% and 38.8%. Central Plains from the United States were less state-owned enterprises, while French and British are more state-owned enterprises.

Precisely, not only to revenue including government tax and other benefits imposed by the Government of alienation, but also should include government ownership of property assets, income, and sales of goods and services revenue.

China’s fiscal revenue of the reason why the ratio of GDP substantially below the world average, due to domestic revenue statistics do not align with international scope, limited to the loss of tax revenue and subsidies to state-owned enterprises. This is very unscientific. Since the loss of subsidies to state-owned enterprises can be included in financial income, then, why the income available for distribution of state-owned enterprises can not be regarded as financial income? Preliminary estimates, if calculated in accordance with international practice on domestic revenue ratio of GDP, probably has more than 40%. No wonder, after all, China is a country with the highest proportion of state assets.

As of the end of 2009, only the scale domestic state-owned and state holding enterprises as much as 20.7 trillion total assets, equity assets totaled 8 trillion, respectively, the total sum of above-scale enterprises, 44% and 42%. This does not include the unfinished transformation of the Ministry of Railways and other departments into enterprises owned by state-owned assets, nor will the state-owned shares and the market value of the difference between the book value included. For example, in the oil inside and outside by the weighted average total stock of about 1.7 trillion total market capitalization, government share of 86% or higher. Conservative estimates, the current government in the hands of listed equity of not less than 13.5 trillion total market capitalization.

I note that, in assessing the risk of sovereign debt, people often neglect the state-owned assets held by the Government on sovereign debt repayment capacity of the positive effect. In fact, with the company can sell assets to repay debt in the case, the government can also, through the sale of state assets to repay the sovereign debt financing, especially domestic debt. Needless to say, the government-owned state-owned assets into account, the Chinese government (including local government) the solvency of the unparalleled.

From this point of view, the so-called debt surged to 7.38 trillion places may drag down China’s economic argument is a serious risk of domestic sovereign debt overestimated.

Asia-Pacific stock markets generally rose today, the Nikkei rose 3.24%, ASX ordinary shares rose 2.33%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.62%, but only A shares may drop further. To the closing stock index reported 2552.66 points, down 0.73%. Unit 3, 9, or a beautiful rose, up 2.27% Hefei Urban Construction, Tianshan shares rose 1.93%. To close in the third period of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) growth with an average cumulative increase from yesterday’s -14.72% to -15.68%, a beautiful combination of 15 cumulative average growth of 28.98 percent gain from yesterday fell to 27.53 percent. Today, 15 blue-chip portfolio continues to plumb pretty average cumulative gain of -3.27% from yesterday and then to -3.48%.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Growth Portfolio Presentation
Code
Referred to as March 4 June 3 cumulative increase the dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (yuan) (%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000 528 Liugong 21.5718.76-13.037.8
239 (10 expected)
000 550 JMC 18.57-16.208.1
228 (10 expected)
600 449 horse industry 35.2322.32-36.64
9.8
2.28
000 961 Central Building 19.358.40-34.88
5.8
1.45 (10 expected)
600 742 FAW-rich-dimensional
26.9217.32-35.6610.3
1.68
002 208 20.25 Hefei Urban Construction
-24.0715.0
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338 Weichai Power 57.48
-5.967.77.50 (10 expected)
600 166 FOTON 17.57-12.637.8
2.26 (10 expected)
000,877 Shares 20.55-3.2018.3 Tianshan
1.12
000 708 Daye Special Steel
11.55-8.55
9.0
1.28 (10 expected)
600 089 TBEA
16.94-0.4116.9
1.00 (10 expected)
600 197
Yilite
15.223.0529.8
0.51 (10 expected)
(Which, due to short-listed at different times, JMC, Hefei Urban Construction, Weichai Power, Futian Automobile, Tianshan shares, Daye Special Steel, TBEA and Yilite benchmark prices were 22.16 yuan, 26.67 yuan, 61.12 yuan , 20.11 yuan, 21.23 yuan, 12.63 yuan, 17.01 yuan and 14.77 yuan)
The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average -15.6812.2
“Beautiful 15″ growing portfolio 51.2427.53
Pretty index of 15 leading
304.74%
The Shanghai Composite Index (September 1 2009 2683.72) 2552.66-4.88

15 beautiful blue-chip portfolio presentation
Code
Abbreviation
May 7
June 3
Total increase (%)
601398 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
4.39
4.22
-0.47
601 857 Oil 11.04
10.62-2.66
600,028 Sinopec
9.018.39-6.88
600019 Baoshan Iron & Steel
6.43
6.28-2.33
600,050 China Unicom
5.35
5.08-5.05
15 beautiful blue-chip portfolio -3.48

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Add to bearish market

September 5th, 2010

-Action: add to bearish market

Bank of China announcement, the Board has recently adopted an additional motion to vote, decided to issue 40 billion A shares market, convertible bonds, which is face value of one yuan of 40 billion A shares (issue price and to raise funds because of the scale is not pre- determined), the difference is that 40 billion A shares issued after 6 months to become equity. In view of the Bank of China’s A share price of the current 4 yuan, it is estimated the additional funds from the market, take away the 1400 billion.

This message as a large-scale supplementary capital of the banking sector this year, a prelude to action, is inevitable. China Banking Regulatory Commission said earlier, commercial banks to add capital to follow the market approach. The so-called market approach, of course, for the stock market.

According to the Board, at present the Bank’s capital adequacy ratio was 11.63%, higher than the China Banking Regulatory Commission to develop the largest bank in the standard shall not be less than 11%. Domestic commercial banks to hold a large proportion of the domestic risk weighting of zero, and therefore no bad debt provision of sovereign debt investment grade, this is actually quite high. It is said the CBRC plans to large banks raise capital to 12% off the assembly line. Even so, to 0.37% and bring disaster to the interests of investors on a hundred million A shares, is clearly thy-neighbor approach. That being said, the domestic banking system to the stock market is indeed an enemy of Bo in their own interests.

Do not think that other commercial banks previously reported relatively high capital adequacy ratio to the neglect of the possibility of additional follow the Bank of China, because of the continuing expansion of the asset at any time to oppress the capital adequacy ratio to 12% or less, especially distribution of the corresponding reduction in the annual capital Allowance.

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