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-Action: how to keep up with the policy is a miscalculation of Vanke

Until November 2007, Vanke has been a leader in real estate stocks. In less than 30 months time, the share price from the 2005 end of 3.12 yuan soared 6-hoisting 40.78 yuan, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 55 times. Subsequent disclosure of the 07 annual report, operating income and net profit surged 98.3% and the annual 110.8 percent, compared with the cumulative growth rate in 2004 were up 363.4 percent and 451.7 percent.

Unfortunately, starting from 2008, Vanke chairman Wang Shi in strong leadership, business strategy from the aggressive to passive and conservative, starting with the real estate control policies will be closely followed, throwing up high-profile "inflection point theory", the implementation of the so-called "No store, we did not cover their plate" and "rapid development, taking care to" line.

The results, in 2008 net profit Vanke 16.7% annual decline, in 2009, and excluding inventory write-back decline in value of investment income growth of operating profit after some 7.028 billion yuan, a year earlier by the same method of calculation of operating profit fell 7.9% .

It is worth mentioning that the performance had not Vanke 2008 landslide, but underestimating the property market situation in the wrong circumstances, because of big stock of provision for decline in value of 1.268 billion yuan was formed to judge the facts of man-made landslide. Here was called an error underestimated, not only because of price, after provision for the fall up instead of drop, but rose sharply, also based on the company's board of directors in 2009 will decline in value of some of the projects the fact that full back. No exaggeration to say, Vanke's performance really was Wang Shi unrealistic negative conservative strategy "Scrapped" for a while.

It should be said, Vanke's biggest miscalculation, the performance of the consolidated gross profit margin from 07 to 42% to 39% in 2008, and 2009 of 29.39%, of which 07 ~ 09 real estate gross margin was 30.49% in turn, 28.15% and 21.99%. This means that, compared to gross margin in 2007, 2009 Vanke 48.32 billion yuan of real estate reduces the profits earned 4.155 billion yuan revenue, net of income tax net profit of 3.116 billion yuan less money.

Why Vanke so miscalculated? Pick matters, said Wang Shi key "inflection point theory" and not to store with the rapid development of business strategy, revealed that he neglected land prices led to the replacement cost of land and therefore push up house prices surge in essence, not as many people touted as: "This person familiar with the property developers Road." Wang Shi like this, those who do not understand the rules that all day real estate industry mediated sucking chewing document cents, to talk nonsense of the generation, but also when any of! The so-called national media bombarded for 14 days of high prices, but only civil servants buy a house well below the market price of this very long-standing injustice that no one theory, what is this shit logic!

Vanke in 2007 calculated at current settlement area of land reserve was 4.63 years (at the end of interest in building reserves of 18.21 million square meters area, then clearing an area of 3,937,000 square meters), in 2008 dropped to 3.97 years, while building equity at year-end 2009 reserve area increased to 24.36 million square meters to 4.03 years after the rebound, but the sales area of 6.636 million square meters in accordance with terms of land reserves was only 3.67 years, if the 2010 plan in accordance with construction area of 8.55 million square meters of new terms, the land reserve rate is only 2.85 years, or only to maintain 285 years of continuous development cycle.

In my previous article discussed the relationship between the price of land replacement cost and, after net friend message in my blog: "The favor of the teacher on the 'From this point of view, continued rapid rise in domestic land as the background, the developer or the earned little money, because of the rise in replacement cost profit was largely formed by sharing buyers' argument, I bought a house in 2004, priced 1,370 yuan, are at least 3900, I made two times, developers are also 100% profits No more than I earn. prepared to go across the district loans are priced 5,400 yuan to buy a multi-floor, to the elderly living at home. "

Vanke's miscalculation in this was given away.

Not store or reserve rate has dropped to the same time rapid development, doubled up as the replacement cost of land, 21.99 percent of the gross profit margin means that the land after Vanke up the replacement cost according to calculations, a square room to sell at least 1,500 yuan loss . Of course the historical cost of land replacement cost and the difference between the profits earned by property buyers go, the less a square meter to five thousand dollars was earned.

Some may say this is helping me Vanke Sellers. Help to help it, but only if it is Wang Shi must first correct the error line, or Vanke's performance after 2010 outlook remains bleak.

The reason why Vanke's performance after 2010 outlook bleak, but not 2010, because the balance on the previous year's sold settlement area and the contract amount is not more substantial, and the average price was 10,208 yuan contract / square meter, more than 2009 28% higher average price settlement, plus 2008's 1.268 billion yuan provision for decline in value of inventory remaining half, we call back, the company's performance in 2010 growth is still quite good.

By the way, with China Vanke, compared the rate of land reserves, South Building in 2009 calculated at current settlement area of land bank rate up to 19.85 years at current sales area is calculated as 13.02 years, according to plan new construction area in 2010 is calculated as 8.18 In. Needless to say, since South Africa taking in the previous construction cost or historical cost is very low, the replacement cost multiplied up, driven by the performance of the company's future growth prospects good to be pleasantly surprised. This is also why I gained a firm bullish on the potential of South-building reasons.

Vanke perhaps not quite so, but not take years to catch up with the surging real estate company China Vanke out.