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-Action: real estate, “Two-limit policy” will end in failure

Expected to limit demand and restrict supply through a “double limit” policy to curb housing prices, the market due to serious violation of the objective law, it could never succeed, the contrary can only lead to higher house prices up more, and therefore further exacerbate income areas polarization.

Reason is not complicated. First of all, since 1987, has 23 years, domestic sales of commercial housing development by calculating the cumulative area of 5.7 billion square meters, and then an area of 100 square meters each calculation, only the 057 million families solve housing problems, only about total number of domestic households about 14% of which were not yet deducted two suites at the molecular and multi-suite situation. Given the proportion of urban households at least 70%, China to deliver its goal of industrialization, which means that, in 2022 the total population of China began to negative growth in the last term, therefore the decision before the arrival of industrialization, China must build 30 billion square meters or more residential in order to meet the needs of the people. The reason is more because of an earlier house built in a shorter life cycle of existence.

Secondly, if it considers the next 12 years, the total area of housing only in accordance with the compound annual growth rate of 16% can be achieved step by step, it would be wrong. Reason is that iron ore prices under the current rate of housing construction costs after 5 years is difficult to say no surge 4 to 6 times, which means that the rigidity of the current demand for housing prices to income ratio with the rapid expansion and diminishes quickly in order to As China’s economy even in 2028 because of population factors have started to enter zero or even negative growth in the long period, they can not achieve the above objectives of industrialization and the corresponding housing construction targets. To this end, China needs to build housing for the next five years, compound annual growth rate target set at 35% or more.

Third, another housing development must accelerate the pace of domestic reasons still come from the population factor, which is still in the country the next 12 years Fourth of them baby boomers born in the population gradually into the marriage age of the cycle, an annual increase of the number of households in 1200 million people, and a considerable amount of copy number of new housing demand. View of the 80 young people were all anxious after settling in the city, coupled with the improvement of existing family housing needs and housing needs of urbanization, new housing needs in urban real fear is about the same at 12 million units. This is equivalent to 2008 to 1.5 times the area of commercial housing sales, and 2 times the area completed the same year.

Fourth, the housing demand is sufficient for at least 7 years, rigid, and the reason is the savings accumulated by the scale of urban and rural residents, the average down payment to support about 25% of the purchase spending needs.

Since the demand is rigid, limiting demand for the original policy, but is should be after the current implementation of the demand pressure, so that a more robust future demand; since the policy can only lead to limited demand for more robust future demand, then, by limiting land transfer and ways to limit bank lending supply, can only lead to future conflicts more prominent market shortage, so prices rise faster.

In short, logical judgments, of course, intensified the real estate “double limit” policy will be to thoroughly failed.

-Action: this year is to increase housing supply or decrease in

Land and Housing 2010, released by the Ministry for the program for many investors know the truth of the real estate stocks suffered some really frightened. God! Last year, the domestic real estate development enterprises combined area of land acquisition was only 31,900 hectares or 319.06 million square meters, can be to plan for this year’s total surprise, housing up to 180,000 hectares or 18 million square meters, is 5.64 times the former. Some investors exclaimed, to substantially increase the land supply, housing prices had not climbed down to the beat. So, the news came out, property stocks plunged, investors Baotoushucuan.

This is a great misunderstanding.

Land Department to plan for public housing, is the total amount of housing land, most of which are not used for commercial housing development, that is not the most open market through auction to developers. According to Ministry of Land and news websites, 18 million hectares of total land available for housing among the security room space accounted for Bacheng. This means that developers will be available for purchase only 36,000 hectares of land, higher than the 2009 purchase of land area developers to 12.8%, but less than 08 developers purchased 36,800 hectares of land area 2.2%, less than 07 In developer land acquisition area of 40,200 hectares or 10.5%, the average annual land developers purchased the previous three years 99% of the area. Taking into account 06 ~ 2009 sales of commercial space up to 54.6% cumulative growth (2006 to 606 million square meters in 2009 to 937 million square meters), while the cumulative area of land acquisition developers increase of -13.32% (in 2006 to 368 million square meters in 2009 to 319 million square meters), a minus, indicating the year for developers to purchase the land area is relatively greatly reduced.

Since this year’s acquisition of the land area available for developers compared to sales is much less, the kind that the future of commercial housing prices will drop significantly less than the views of the evidence. In order to infer the future performance of the slide in property shares the same view untenable.

Why, then, that huge increase in government policy outside the housing developers for the amount of it?

From the following set of data is not difficult to find the answer.

Since 2000, domestic commercial housing development will occupy an area of housing construction in general the situation is as follows:

Years
Area of commercial housing construction
Housing construction area
Proportion
2000

6.5897 million square meters
26.5294 million square meters of 24.84%

2001
7.7214 million square meters of 27.6025 million square meters of 27.97%

20029.4104 million square meters

30.4428 million square meters of 30.91%

200311.6907 34.3742 100 000 000 100 000 000 square meters square meters 34.01%

200,414.0451 100 million square meters
37.6459 million square meters
37.31%

200,516.4445 100 million square meters
43.1123 million square meters
38.14%

200,619.4090 100 million square meters
46.2677 million square meters
41.95%

200,723.6318 100 million square meters
54.8542 million square meters
43.08%

200,827.4149 100 million square meters

61.6528 million square meters
44.47%

2009
31.9600 million square meters
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

This set of data above shows that, with the commercial housing development in the gross domestic housing construction area increasing the proportion of non-commodity housing has continued to decline, resulting in more and more domestic residents, including low income levels of residents, have through had been rapidly rising property market to meet housing needs. To a large extent, the reason why domestic prices rose rapidly, housing prices rose too fast reason why the masses are very satisfied with the answer on this.

This shows that the reason for this massive expansion of government beyond the policy of housing developers for the program, mainly to compensate for the historical event of default, accumulated in previous years. However, too many outstanding loans, even though the policy this year to plan for massive expansion of housing is still far from meeting the real needs. This is why the majority of those surveyed think that the Government should also expand the housing supply of the main reasons of policy.

Next, as the expansion of housing supply after the policy can not meet the potential needs, together with housing policy purchasers or users and purchasers of commercial houses had existed between the significant income segment, it is difficult to expect land Department of Housing for the program can play the role of inhibition of property prices.

Released from the local government for the land plan, reports that Shanghai has announced for this year’s housing program, at 1100 hectares (approximately by 3% over last year) of the total supply, the security room, studio commercial housing reform, and medium and small unit other three sites accounted for a total of 770 hectares; to include medium and small unit and “non-ordinary residence” of goods, including 400 hectares of residential land is only for the supply of four percent a year or so. This will definitely increase the Shanghai property market supply and demand gap, and a corresponding increase in power prices rise.

As for other means of inhibitory effect on property prices, based on past experience, I am afraid that rule this year, not next year rule. The so-called holding back urine, urinary 3 times a day and the day the results of urine 9 reduction in the number only, but the urine or as much.

Qing Yi: Japan land prices bubble burst the real reason (in)

If you do not consider the financial magnates of land monopoly and land financing, real estate market conditions in Japan after the war in general is good. For example, according to the Cabinet, “Heisei 19 (2007) Economic White Paper” provides data from 1955 to 1991, at current prices, Japan’s cumulative GDP growth was 52.9 times and 70.1 times growth in labor compensation, which is a higher rate of increase Engel coefficient for the substantial decrease in the premise to become a driving force to stimulate the spending of private buyers.

Another example, discussed the land in the form of Japanese nationals in the total assets of the proportion of 30.6% in 1955, reform of the Japanese archipelago in 1972 to 32.0% after throwing for the post-war record, to the land before the bubble burst reduced to 28.4% in 1991. Exposure to the relative stability of the land, at least show that Japan’s land price bubble is not a macro and holistic, but micro and structural.

Japanese land bubble of the key micro-structural, is the Foundation of the monopoly over land resources. It should be said, this first post-war period of U.S. control is already initial signs. It is said Japanese companies had total assets of the proportion of land assets in half, almost 100% own capital. Since then, due to the Bank of Japan released the long-term loans to enterprises generally require that the land as collateral, how much land has put the number of loans, land prices go up, along the corresponding line of credit expansion. Affected by this traction among Japanese companies continue to vigorously expand the war to buy the land, and land expansion in production capacity and market expansion as a prerequisite for the ultimate form of financial magnates of the land monopoly. I remember the Wall Street analysts in the evaluation of the Japanese auto industry to overcome the nineties during the oil shocks wrote: Toyota is like a piggyback on their own land in production cars landlords. Benefit from rising land prices and the Bank of Japan pledged property on land the favor, not only easy to spend Japan’s automotive industry oil shock, but also in the time-stretched U.S. counterparts Hou big financial investment to upgrade.

Although the Japanese workers compensation increase is substantially ahead of GDP growth, but in accordance with the current remuneration of labor force statistics per capita growth between 1955 to 1991 was 67.13 times lower. This is 66.3 times the premium streets in Japan over the same period the accumulated gains of the same. As land prices rigid full, but laborers paid up with some sticky, mainly the middle and low income earners pay less than the national average increase, which would create a serious problem, that is, the more serious the monopoly of land tycoons, in low-income the more far away from the property market.

In addition, the premium rose sharply in Japan has also become a serious constraint infrastructure barriers, limiting further enhance the pace of Japan’s competitiveness.

Japanese government in 1991 threw out the system for the two major land reform started in the following year. First, the introduction of land tax, which taxes land holders (not including government-owned, public use and 1,000 square meters of residential land or transfer of the following lower prices of land), and compared to the previous municipal property tax, an increase of 100% of nominal The actual increase of 200% (mainly due to adjustment of tax discount rate). Second is to promote the 50-year lease on a regular basis right after the expiry of re-trading.

To a large extent, the Japanese government reform can be summarized in the democratization of the land system, namely through increased private ownership of land tax to weaken color, by shortening the periodic lease rights to accelerate the redistribution of land resources so that more in low-income people buy a house have the opportunity to realize a dream.

Noteworthy point is that long term residential land use rights, combined with lower inheritance tax (currently China’s policy is tax-free property inheritance between immediate family members), is the main culprit contributing to rich and poor differentiation (in the future even more so), The result is a room with other people’s kids room, no room no room other people’s children. Think about it, when labor can not become the basic way house, the community will become what like?

In fact, the reform of Japan not to mention innovation. Almost all developed countries have been completed before the early Japanese real estate system of democratic reform. In the case of increased taxes, including turnover tax, holding tax, estate duty, etc., the so-called private ownership of land was a great public character.

In 1992, Japanese land prices started to decline, long-term accumulation in the chaebol monopoly on land-based premium finance bubble has finally burst.

However, as China and Japan is completely different between the land system, combined with domestic capital for housing projects mainly from the commercial housing market, and has less than 15% of the national penetration rate of commercial housing, so residential areas in China to speed up democratization process, does not and should appear similar to the Japanese land price bubble burst.

In China, real estate, probably the best state should be: rich and poor in their place, allowing the rich high-priced buy a house, money for the poor with the rich, protective cover more residential. And the worst of the state, than the price issue, incited the masses to struggle, the result is less than the rich have money to buy a house, the Government’s financial constraints have no money to build a house for the poor, while the supply and demand determine prices continue to rise, the more up greater conflict, the final approximation of social madness.