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Qing Yi: China's asset price bubble does not exist
[Japanese land price bubble burst in the real reasons (below)]

Fallen leaves will shatter the head? Frankly speaking, only those dissatisfied with a bottle, shake it all day in a half bottle things (children) do (children) of people would be face value. Worse, over-exaggerated the risk of the Chinese economy has become quite common in economic life phenomenon, including academics and decision-making. However, this does nothing to risk control, it touches will be a serious impediment to economic health.

Economists concerned about asset price bubble is actually paying attention to loan quality, and therefore decided to financial security. Loan quality is usually determined by the collateral. As a common collateral, land and stock prices is a measure of asset price bubbles and not. It said the asset price bubble, in fact, talking about the land price bubble and stock price bubble.

Yes, because in Japan most of the land as collateral for loans, while banks have a large number of holdings, land and stock prices rise over after the bubble burst there is indeed cause the Japanese economy since the nineties of the last century into a long-term downturn reasons. Land prices continued to fall by about collateral, banks surge in bad loans, to prevent further deterioration of the capital adequacy ratio, even if the long-term interest rate is zero, it can not prevent long-term loans of negative growth. This is the so-called zero interest rate Japan's economy, zero growth. However, the domestic equity as collateral for loans to be minimal, with a loan pledge of goods in the past, all for the price of equity is far below the market price of the Restricted Shares, and in calculating the value of the collateral Shi You are fully underestimated, no doubt, stock prices will not constitute a domestic asset price bubbles.

As for the land, taking into account the accumulated sales since 1986, commercial property (including commercial residential and commercial buildings) occupied 413 acres of land at best, even if two million yuan per mu according to the weighted average price calculation (previously used for commercial housing development The average land price of less than 100 yuan / mu, or even the year 2000 less than 500,000 yuan / mu), is private land holdings listed total assets total more than 8.3 trillion yuan, however, the corresponding premium rate (total premium on GDP ratio), only 25%, equivalent to only mature market one-seventh of the national average. For base reasons, the smaller base of assets and the land base of civil larger between GDP, even though the two annual growth rate of the same land ratio also decreased year by year. Therefore, there is no evidence that there exists land asset bubbles.

I would like to remind you that the premium rate to talk about aside land asset bubbles is not very professional.

Address the land ratio, the United States most years less than 100%, the UK most years 80% to 200% swing, while Japan rose in 1980 after more than 300%. According to Japanese scholars introduced in Japan in 1990, private land assets 2,400 trillion yen, equivalent to 341.14 trillion yen, then the official GDP statistics of 700%. Although the 1997 devaluation of land assets, to 1,700 trillion yen, but compared with the current GDP ratio as high as 441 percent premium.

Since 1986, total domestic sales of commercial area of 5.5 billion square meters, according to two times the average volume rate of land, occupied land area of commercial housing sold approximately 2.75 billion square meters in about, or about 413 million mu. It is worth noting in this commercial houses occupy 413 mu of land which have so far still in the proportion of multi-state collateral, but Liu Cheng, and mortgage of land replacement cost several times more than the cost of a mortgage or even 10 times. In this case, the private holdings of public land prices on the quality of bank loans is quite positive, where we talk about asset price bubbles!

To a large extent, not only the domestic private holdings of the current asset price of land there is no risk of a bubble, but a longer period of time in the future will not appear. The reason is the future trend of land prices are still rising, first transformation of the old with the relocation compensation costs which continue to promote the existing urban land prices, followed by rising food prices to promote the future of new urban land prices. On the other hand, the next 15 to 20 years as the expected increase in commercial housing land is 3 to 4 times the stock of the Government to increase land supply and land sales revenue growth, can also suppress the risk of domestic land assets price bubble to play an active effect.

From a psychological point of view, the reason that people exaggerate the risk, often due to lack of confidence, complacency or laziness. All these are unhealthy psychological characteristics.

Over-inflated asset price bubble in the domestic land-harm is: If you do not rush in labor costs due to the shortage of labor supply rose sharply prior to accelerate the commercial housing development, then, on the one hand all future construction materials will be accompanied by rising labor costs rise, so developers cost is high; the other hand, the current excess liquidity (the so-called lack of liquidity tightening is only man-made or create a false impression) will as the means of production and the overall rise in consumer prices, the evolution of the flow of depreciation as well as liquidity shortages, so that the purchasing power of existing commercial houses a substantial decline in the whole society. By that time, not only land be cut down, and commodity prices will rise a new retaliatory.

Ching Yee: rising commodity prices, where government responsibility

Good government is shirking its responsibility not the government. In big government, the context of small markets, domestic commodity prices continue to rise residential responsibility comes down to whether the market is still down to the government, which originally was a difficult question to answer.

Unfortunately, a long time, the government's actions at the policy level, the market has reflected an enemy, repeatedly stressed the rapid rise in prices of commercial housing developers and home buyers because of the speculation, so the price the responsibility of continuing high overall push to the market, but only remember a review should be the responsibility of their own.

Is the Government really can shirk responsibility for it? The answer of course is no.

Looking around the world, both in mature market economies, or economies in transition, residential demand can not and should not be met entirely through market means. Which way the market corresponding to the commercial housing, corresponding to non-market approach is to protect the house. Population growth, especially driven by urbanization, population structure, economic situation, whether in prosperity or depression, domestic demand is always rigid. This determines the way the market that can not be liable to commercial housing to meet housing needs must be by the Government through non-market approach to the protection of housing to meet, also decided among the commercial houses and security room should maintain a proper ratio, otherwise the price of commodity houses inevitable volatility, and thus increase the whole society on the housing dissatisfaction.

As a planned economy to a market economy in transition economies, the problem of key domestic residential, Zheng Fu Guo Cheng Zhong could not properly cope with transformation between commercial houses and Bao Zhang Housing proportional relationship Biao Xian Wei repeated tightening security over the supply room, Poshi should follow the original Bu ways to meet the market demand for housing residents were driven to commercial housing market, so demand for commercial housing prices in the over-stimulated growth of abnormal rise. There is no doubt, due to commercial housing and the protection of the proportional relationship between house severely damaged, over rising commodity prices is not the primary responsibility for the market, should rather more by the government.

Before 1985, the domestic housing market is almost non-existent goods, all residents of the housing problems are to be addressed through the security room, the statistics show a ratio of 100 percent protection room. To 1986, completed the domestic residential area of 1.205 billion square meters of total sales of commercial property area of only 18.35 million square meters of commercial housing by seven as calculated, then the total commercial residential or residential commercial residential rate ratio of 1.07%.

10 years later, in 1996 completed the domestic residential square meters total area of 1.219 billion, while sales of commercial property rose to 68.98 million square meters area, as calculated by seven become a commodity residential, residential commercial rates to 3.96%. In another 10 years, and in 2006 completed the domestic residential area of 1.314 billion square meters of total, domestic sales of goods rose to 606 million square meters area, 10-year cumulative increase of up to 779 percent, while the protection of housing supply from 10 years ago to 1.15 billion square meters of atrophy to 890 million square meters below the fold so large domestic commercial rate raised to 32.28%.

By 2007, China completed a total area of housing increased to 1.463 billion square meters, though, but the area ahead of commercial residential sales rose to 774 million square meters, of which approximately 5.5 billion square meters of residential, commercial residential rate which makes the re-raised to 37.6%. View of the area of commercial housing were sold in 2009 and further increased to 937 million square meters, of which not less than 700 million square meters of residential, believe that commercialization of the domestic rate of residential break 43%. However, even in developed economies, domestic commercial rates reach this level, many only about three percent.

Overall, from 1986 to 2009, domestic sales of domestic product increased 509 times the total area, while from 1986 to 2008, completed the domestic security residential area of 22.56% cumulative decline. Taking into account the same period the urban population by the rapid growth of 264 million to 6.1 million, due to security room formed by shrinking the supply of housing shortage problem is very prominent. Thus, the commercial housing prices have risen steeply down to the responsibility of commercial housing and the protection ratio between housing imbalance and the government does not properly protect the housing supply crunch, is totally established.

Usually a person's good or bad according to his ability to take responsibility for others to judge. By inference, on the middle and low income housing needs of the responsibility of government to protect the rich, long-term protection of housing supply contraction laissez-faire, especially given the protection of housing supply, urban population growth is relatively rapid decline, while allowing domestic commercial rate of abnormal increase can not said to be a great mistake. I have considered this point was very polite.

No exaggeration to say that if the government can not guarantee the domestic commercial housing and the ratio between house restored to an appropriate level of commercial housing prices rose too fast the whole problem will not solve the long-term. According to the current level of national income estimates, the total newly added commercial residential proportion of new residential or residential commercial rate should be controlled at 25%, which is over 43% of the current commercial rate compared to the domestic housing is clearly there huge gap.

Qing Yi: Government has no sincerity to solve the housing problem poor households

7 auction in Beijing today, the total turnover 7.63 billion yuan, plus the previous 35 billion yuan, up to now, only residential land auction Beijing has more than 42.6 billion yuan revenue. This represents total annual revenue from land sales can be even less upfront investment reached 100 billion yuan.

100 billion yuan to cover the number of Anju Fang? By 70 square meters per household, 1900 yuan per square meter construction cost (the standard should not be low), land and related costs 1,000 yuan terms, 100 billion yuan to build 50 million Anju Fang, 500,000 poor families to solve the housing problem . Having said that, within three years, Beijing can periodically eliminate poverty housing.

Housing project should be the Government pays the money, of course. From the above situation, the Government is not no money, but money does not intend fully to solve the housing problem for poor families.

A clear and unmistakable error is that the current government has repeatedly claimed to suppress commercial housing price, totally ignored the input of funds should come from housing projects, the housing market can only come from a very simple truth.

Earlier I said that rising commodity prices, I applaud. Since the commercial housing market demand, the more housing prices rise as house sold sooner, why not encourage developers build more house? Why is the central bank has repeatedly suppressed developer loans demand? Why not find ways to stimulate the rapid development of the domestic housing market, and then faster and better families in poverty housing problem?

Some netizens commented that: no one complained about housing prices in Singapore. Yes, because there is money to build a house for the poor, the same money from the rich to buy a house.

Even to sell more commercial housing prices may decline, thus threatening the safety of the banking system's credit, but if so solve the housing problems of poor families, are not Amitabha, an extremely important thing? Stumped more money should be conveyed to the Americans to use only reasonable that you!

In fact, even if the goods 100% annual growth rate of residential land, housing prices will not fall, after all, the prices of steel and other building materials rising, the only developer profit margin may be decreased. This is of course not be a bad thing. The central bank worried about falling house values, simply much ado about nothing, or more seriously is forgetting what is right, of heartless.

In accordance with the price of iron ore rose 50 percent a year (this year to rise 90 percent) projected to accelerate housing projects not now, three years after the housing cost may double.

We must see the true face of the current tightening policy: to ignore the interests of the poor people, especially the cost to blindly hoarding liquidity in the end finally to the depreciation value, which will end up liquidity. By that time, the chickens flew, eggs have played to see how you explain to the people.

All in all, not to poor people's interests first, without any merit at all power.