Qing Yi: Land in the financial, land finance what has been the
On these short years The Economist, Andy Xie, the first number count. Some say a word in his three “bubble.” Unfortunately, ever since he was years ago, asserted that domestic property bubble about to burst, the price has quadrupled.
Only from this point of view, Xie’s not enough solid economic foundation. Is not it? Among the orthodox economics, the so-called bubble, is that price increases had accelerated sharply following the fall, it simply is not sustainable prices. Now that prices have gone up further up, he calls the “bubble”, what things really are! I am afraid Bacheng saliva are the stars.
Any described as a “term” of the word, have a specific meaning, otherwise is not science. It should be said, Xie on the “bubble” word of the very strict interpretation, less injury of his own academic career, even worse, a large number of followers is misleading. Consequently, the “bubble” flying into the media for a visit.
Xie said recently that half of government revenue from the property industry, alluding to the financial model can not be sustained. It reminds me of the old saying: there is land as wealth.
British sages said: The land is the mother of wealth, labor is the father of wealth. This phrase can do much to explain. In any case, the same land as the productivity of the labor factor, is not tolerate misleading.
Yes, the land is productive.
Rather, the “Land in the wealth” is the ancient sages (of seniority in the family, probably more than the United Kingdom earlier than fathers, or at least 20 generations in 2000) theory of sovereign economies, financial summary of the most brilliant. Can not do without all the land of output, output growth, in turn, promoted the proliferation of land, while the land under the authority of course, is the main source of revenue.
Only in respect of China’s economy, the land as productive, have different roles in different periods, and never lose its importance.
The early days, China’s GDP, more than half of the primary industry, the importance of the land that time we can see, if not the next.
Nearly three decades, while agriculture and efficiency improvement, albeit rather slowly, to make a large acreage on the same output of food, from the initial 305 million tons to 550 million tons today. It is worth noting that in 245 million tons of total grain output which has 100 million tons was formed last 8 years, since 2002, total domestic food production increased by nearly 20%, but the total population over the same period increased by only 4.23 cumulative %.
Similarly, the recent 8 years, the primary industry added value of total GDP is only 2.15 trillion yuan, while the second and third industries to increase the value of the cumulative total GDP was as high as 18.62 trillion yuan. When we say all the outputs are actually inseparable from the land, he must recognize that land used for non-agricultural industries, output efficiency is far greater than agriculture. In fact, in view of the developed countries primary industry accounted for 2% of GDP, however, and now China is 11% less than the future of China’s land for non-agricultural output efficiency have a considerable room for improvement.
This regard that according to the 2021 China’s total population of 1.387 billion people in the peak, after entering at least 80 years of negative growth cycle, to 2100 the total population of less than 560 million people of authority population projections, China will continue to increase food production efforts need not, should rather be to continue efforts to improve yield or to increase organic food production efforts. On the other hand, in order to continue to improve land productivity and efficiency, we must be more land for non-agricultural projects, housing industry, including of course.
Viewed from another angle, yesterday I said: In recent years, an increase of the value of the domestic household savings fluctuate significantly. According to data provided by the central bank website, the 2006 value of 2.05 trillion yuan increase, to 2007 dropped significantly from 1.09 trillion yuan, while in 2008 and then surged to 4.54 trillion yuan. Why an increase of the value of domestic household savings will be like a tree monkey as Shangcuanxiatiao? Results of the analysis is that this is the relationship between commercial housing sales data are very close. From the state bureau of statistics, China has experienced residential sales increased slightly in 2006, the 2007 rate of increase jumped to 46.5%, while in 2008 an increase of -20.1%. It would appear that household savings are mainly used for Sellers not too little.
Since savings are the future consumption, since household savings are mainly used for house purchase, then, the government ignored the reality, of course, unforgivable mistake.
So, in my view, the land of domestic finance, there is no point in the general direction of the problem. Problem is that the Government should be revenue from the property market further focus on investment in domestic industries, build more houses also allow developers to develop more projects to meet the growing purchasing Guomin needs while making money with money, relying on the efficiency of conversion of land to non-agricultural and industrial structure and further aggregation to win more revenue, more good run for the country.
Policies to enrich the feed and clothe not get away. Ask the people, not the individual side of house, feed and clothe operator enriching it!
Hand, scholars can rely on saliva Xingzi living, to seek truth from facts, words must be rigorous, but also to pursue post verifiable. Verification can not be nonsense.