Qing Yi: crude oil fell 60 U.S. dollars would be a bigger disaster
Common in industrialized countries compared to negative growth in GDP, crude oil prices over the past year, the biggest gain in nearly 130% is obviously a very asymmetric. With oil prices in New York early in January end plate spikes to 83.5 US dollars a barrel after, followed by a trip to edge lower, first Friday to close at 71.19 U.S. dollars a barrel.
However, this certainly will not international oil prices this year, the lowest level. Next month, crude oil prices is likely to test the psychological barrier of 60 U.S. dollars a barrel.
Crude oil prices continued to decrease in future demand on the market from the first worry about the prospect. International Energy Agency (IEA) chief economist Fatih – Birol (Fatih
Birol) last Thursday warned that, due to increased vehicle fuel efficiency and traffic in areas outside of the gradual use of electricity and natural gas instead of oil, oil demand in developed countries will no longer return to year 2006 and 2007 levels. Increase on automobile fuel efficiency, it can synchronize from the recent pursuit of the global auto market 1.4T other as evident among small cars.
On the other hand, high oil prices are stimulating a new round of investment boom. Iraq is trying, through extensive international cooperation will be 250 million barrels of crude oil output increased from 1,200 million barrels of crude oil in Africa and Central America in the long-term output growth is aggressive.
Perhaps a more negative impact from the global financial regulation to upgrade. Since Obama has thrown the financial sub-sector policies, due to financial conservative forces won the known Group of Twenty (BCBS) support, therefore, formally approved in Congress prohibited banks from proprietary trading and hedge funds and private equity participation equity funds prior to the transaction, including crude oil varieties will inevitably arise waves of market divestment initiative.
Unfortunately, the breakthrough in global government debt in February 2010, 36 trillion U.S. dollars and 40 trillion messages, making the European sovereign debt crisis appears even more difficult. This is indeed likely to lead the world economy into a second recession.
The question now is, if crude oil prices fell to 60 U.S. dollars a barrel, A-share market will go from here.
In brief, given the falling crude oil prices has triggered the government reduced domestic oil prices strong expectations of price cuts after the commercial operations have stated the urgency to reduce inventory, heavyweight PetroChina and Sinopec will be the main stock index fell below repression in The main power line. Not only that, oil prices will force the international market price of coal and the relationship with parity up metal prices fell, on the A shares have a meaningful indicator of coal plates, metal plates will emerge down power. Thus, after the broader market fell below the trend is in line can not be optimistic.
Yes, this round of adjustment is driven by offshore. Continues to ignore international factors will lead to greater losses.