Archive for the ‘Beautiful 15’ Category

Heavyweight stabilized

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Bank shares in the first quarter by four percent to encourage performance EADS were mixed today, A shares open higher in the afternoon again pulled up, helpless and subject shares late small plates bad news fast by hazy edge lower, weighed on the market under pressure. To the closing stock index reported 2868.43 points, down 1.10%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) or a suspension of a rose 5. Hefei Urban Construction up 2.03%. After three consecutive trading days up heavy volume after the Jiangling Motors today shrinkage adjustment, although the decline and closing up 8.06%, but volume can be relations, is expected to re-market outlook is still strong. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the last trading day of -11.12% to -12.98%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful down from 34.42% to 31.61%, a beautiful 15 from September 1, 2009 since cumulative gains for the main stock index rise of 4.59 times over the same period.

From tomorrow, the third of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) and then there are new faces, short-listed for the sustainable growth of the constituent stocks is full of Fukuda car. A Quarterly Bulletin revealed that various types of vehicle sales in the company rose 47% last year based on the further sharp increase of 42.9%. Operating income increased as the clear leader in operating costs increase, profit margin expansion, net profit rose 179%, report 0.566 yuan per share, is the 2009 half-year earnings per share of 1.15 times. In a number of construction project will be put into the case, expects a capacity planning problem will be better this year, the annual earnings per share of 2.26 yuan a breakthrough possible, the current dynamic price-earnings ratio is only 8.9 times.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 29
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)

000528
Liugong 21.57 20.43 -5.28 8.5
2.39 (10 expected)

000550 JMC 21.00 -5.23
9.2
2.28 (10 expected)

600449
Racing Industry 35.23 26.40 -25.06 11.6
2.28

000961
South Building 19.35 14.97 -22.64 6.9
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 22.11 -17.87 13.2
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction
23.16
-13.16 17.2
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338
Weichai Power
60.14
-1.60
8.07.50 (10 expected)
600 166
FOTON
20.11
8.9
2.26 (10 expected)

(Which, due to short-listed at different times, Jiangling Motors, Hefei Urban Construction, Weichai Power and Fukuda benchmark price of motor vehicles were 22.16 yuan, 26.67 yuan, 61.12 yuan and 20.11 yuan)

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average -12.98 10.4

“Beautiful 15″ 51.24
31.61

Beautiful 15 leading index
304.74%
359.45% (4.5945-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 2868.43 6.88

Debt risk is overestimated

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 newsletter

Domestic revenues to the GDP ratio is 20% or 40% or more? This is obviously a big problem. From the state bureau of statistics, in 1978 and 2009, fiscal revenue ratio of the GDP were 31.1% and 20.4%. Intuitively, this ratio is significantly decreased. However, always look at the issue directly, I am afraid that many problems can makes mistakes. A stone and a piece of jade of the blocks containing, visually see all the stone, but they are essentially different.

According to World Bank statistics, in 2006 the central government revenue on the world average GDP ratio is 26.9%, 27.3% developed countries. However, the same countries, the United States is only 19.3%, while France and Britain but were as high as 43.0% and 38.8%. Central Plains from the United States were less state-owned enterprises, while French and British are more state-owned enterprises.

Precisely, not only to revenue including government tax and other benefits imposed by the Government of alienation, but also should include government ownership of property assets, income, and sales of goods and services revenue.

China’s fiscal revenue of the reason why the ratio of GDP substantially below the world average, due to domestic revenue statistics do not align with international scope, limited to the loss of tax revenue and subsidies to state-owned enterprises. This is very unscientific. Since the loss of subsidies to state-owned enterprises can be included in financial income, then, why the income available for distribution of state-owned enterprises can not be regarded as financial income? Preliminary estimates, if calculated in accordance with international practice on domestic revenue ratio of GDP, probably has more than 40%. No wonder, after all, China is a country with the highest proportion of state assets.

As of the end of 2009, only the scale domestic state-owned and state holding enterprises as much as 20.7 trillion total assets, equity assets totaled 8 trillion, respectively, the total sum of above-scale enterprises, 44% and 42%. This does not include the unfinished transformation of the Ministry of Railways and other departments into enterprises owned by state-owned assets, nor will the state-owned shares and the market value of the difference between the book value included. For example, in the oil inside and outside by the weighted average total stock of about 1.7 trillion total market capitalization, government share of 86% or higher. Conservative estimates, the current government in the hands of listed equity of not less than 13.5 trillion total market capitalization.

I note that, in assessing the risk of sovereign debt, people often neglect the state-owned assets held by the Government on sovereign debt repayment capacity of the positive effect. In fact, with the company can sell assets to repay debt in the case, the government can also, through the sale of state assets to repay the sovereign debt financing, especially domestic debt. Needless to say, the government-owned state-owned assets into account, the Chinese government (including local government) the solvency of the unparalleled.

From this point of view, the so-called debt surged to 7.38 trillion places may drag down China’s economic argument is a serious risk of domestic sovereign debt overestimated.

Asia-Pacific stock markets generally rose today, the Nikkei rose 3.24%, ASX ordinary shares rose 2.33%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.62%, but only A shares may drop further. To the closing stock index reported 2552.66 points, down 0.73%. Unit 3, 9, or a beautiful rose, up 2.27% Hefei Urban Construction, Tianshan shares rose 1.93%. To close in the third period of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) growth with an average cumulative increase from yesterday’s -14.72% to -15.68%, a beautiful combination of 15 cumulative average growth of 28.98 percent gain from yesterday fell to 27.53 percent. Today, 15 blue-chip portfolio continues to plumb pretty average cumulative gain of -3.27% from yesterday and then to -3.48%.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Growth Portfolio Presentation
Code
Referred to as March 4 June 3 cumulative increase the dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (yuan) (%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000 528 Liugong 21.5718.76-13.037.8
239 (10 expected)
000 550 JMC 18.57-16.208.1
228 (10 expected)
600 449 horse industry 35.2322.32-36.64
9.8
2.28
000 961 Central Building 19.358.40-34.88
5.8
1.45 (10 expected)
600 742 FAW-rich-dimensional
26.9217.32-35.6610.3
1.68
002 208 20.25 Hefei Urban Construction
-24.0715.0
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338 Weichai Power 57.48
-5.967.77.50 (10 expected)
600 166 FOTON 17.57-12.637.8
2.26 (10 expected)
000,877 Shares 20.55-3.2018.3 Tianshan
1.12
000 708 Daye Special Steel
11.55-8.55
9.0
1.28 (10 expected)
600 089 TBEA
16.94-0.4116.9
1.00 (10 expected)
600 197
Yilite
15.223.0529.8
0.51 (10 expected)
(Which, due to short-listed at different times, JMC, Hefei Urban Construction, Weichai Power, Futian Automobile, Tianshan shares, Daye Special Steel, TBEA and Yilite benchmark prices were 22.16 yuan, 26.67 yuan, 61.12 yuan , 20.11 yuan, 21.23 yuan, 12.63 yuan, 17.01 yuan and 14.77 yuan)
The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average -15.6812.2
“Beautiful 15″ growing portfolio 51.2427.53
Pretty index of 15 leading
304.74%
The Shanghai Composite Index (September 1 2009 2683.72) 2552.66-4.88

15 beautiful blue-chip portfolio presentation
Code
Abbreviation
May 7
June 3
Total increase (%)
601398 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
4.39
4.22
-0.47
601 857 Oil 11.04
10.62-2.66
600,028 Sinopec
9.018.39-6.88
600019 Baoshan Iron & Steel
6.43
6.28-2.33
600,050 China Unicom
5.35
5.08-5.05
15 beautiful blue-chip portfolio -3.48

The Dow rose to 11,020 points, a 20-month high

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

A good quarterly performance expectations, market confidence has been lifted, U.S. stocks opened higher today fully, the Dow rose to 11,020 points, opening soon, creating a 20-month high. Following last Friday’s drop in the dollar index today Tiaokongdikai adjourned to the decline. Wall Street bank is widely expected quarterly results for a sharp rebound in shares. Standard & Poor’s analysts will be short-term goals to increase from the previous 1200 points to 1250 points.

A stock market jittery today, heavyweight, real estate stocks fell heavy volume, a very thick atmosphere of panic. To the closing stock index reported 3129.26 points, down 0.51%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) Gone with the Wind green across the board again. South building fell 4.92%, but the low carry active, turnover rate 6.12%, the highest in almost three weeks. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the previous trading day 1.81% to -1.33%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful down 49.23 percent from 53.98 percent.

Panic is the enemy of the market. Today’s A-share market panic even if not really reached the limit, it is unusual feel. Such as interest rate expectations, with Zhou Xiaochuan are wondering: Who want to raise rates? Sinopec, another example of refined oil price adjustment once again ignored the 2.16% drop last weekend, the Premier visited the rural areas, said oil prices would raise subsidies for farmers, which strongly suggested price adjustment will be implemented in the near future.

I hope that the external market does well dispersed A-share market is conducive to panic.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 12
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 22.38 3.76 16.8
1.33
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
18.05 -1.90
12.7
1.42
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
35.05 -0.51 15.4
2.28
000961
South Building 19.35 18.73 -3.20 8.6
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 26.20 – 2.67 15.6
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction 26.19 -2.13
21.8
1.20 (10 expected)

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average -1.33
15.2

“Beautiful 15″ 51.24 49.23

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74%
196.57% (2.9657-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3129.26 16.60

Contradiction with the expected interest rate rise

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Recent soaring international commodity markets on the one hand is affected by soaring prices of iron ore a long association double traction, on the other hand I am afraid that with the foreign investors generally expect further appreciation of the renminbi. Various aspects of the message to determine the yuan’s recent appreciation of the possibilities are.

At the same time, the voice of the resurgence of domestic interest rates. It is noteworthy that interest rates and expected appreciation is extremely contradictory. First of all, the original expectation of RMB appreciation would stimulate the flow of hot money, and once interest rates, equal to the expected appreciation of this piece of cake to hang frosting, hot money inflows becomes stronger. Second, the positive role of RMB appreciation is to expand domestic demand, but interest rates on the contrary is to curb domestic demand, real interest rates, and appreciation of the negative factors will become one-sided. Third, the idea that raising interest rates to curb property prices is wishful thinking to say, because the interest rate on the property market is far greater than the supply constraint for the role of demand and increased supply of future cases to stimulate the property market prices rise revenge. This point had been repeatedly been fully verified.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) full down, except Liugong, the decline was less than 1%. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the previous trading day 2.84% down to 1.76%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful down 53.90 percent from 55.54 percent.

From tomorrow, the third of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) to add a constituent stocks – Hefei Urban Construction (002208). Partly due to good growth stock performance this year, in the first quarter increased 35 times expected earnings per share 0.37 yuan, the annual earnings per share 1.20 yuan more than in 2009 achieved 0.693 yuan, and distribution plan to send 10 to switch 5 get 5 0.6 element; in part because of the previous five did better than expected performance of the constituent stocks of the Hefei Urban poor need to be encouraging about.

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 7
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 22.83 5.84 17.2
1.33
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
18.08 -1.74
12.7
1.42
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
35.78 1.56 15.7
2.28
000961
South Building 19.35 20.17 4.24 9.3
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 26 .62 -1.11 15.8
1.68
002 208
Hefei Urban Construction 26.76
22.3
1.20 (10 expected)

The third phase of “beautiful 15″ average 1.76
14.1

“Beautiful 15″ 51.24 53.90

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74%
211.83% (3.1183-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3148.22 17.31

The bad news pushed the dollar index pressured the stock market

Monday, July 26th, 2010

-Action: The bad news pushed the dollar index the stock market under pressure

The first week after the Spring Festival Xianyihouyang A-share market, where Tuesday afternoon, significant buying opportunity, but are super-short-term nature, only a small amount of the proposed involvement of Friends of beautiful stock, “a beautiful 15″ is still entertained. If you choose profit taking today, there will be a percent or so large as proceeds.

Many people may have concerns of today’s profits because the stock market rising afternoon heavy volume, indicating institutional interest is strong to do more. However, due to special circumstances this year, I am sure more reliance on trading opportunities in the international financial market analysis, rather than the main trends observed disk.

Sure, the bad news of the European trading session. First, the euro zone economic confidence index in February fell unexpectedly to 95.9, significantly lower than the previous survey of 25 economists forecast given by the average value of 96.4. Followed by both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s, said Greece’s debt rating may be lowered within a month, because the government cut the budget deficit problem in facing difficulties. In addition, Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s
Investor
Service) report released today, said that if the Japanese government can not do more to solve the debt problems of the country concerned, it may be Japan’s sovereign credit rating outlook lowered to negative.

The above information as a reason for the dollar index rose by no means far-fetched. To this writing, the dollar index has rebounded to 81.12.

It is noteworthy that the dollar index and the stock market and commodity market trends often reverse. As more bad news pushed the dollar index, crude oil prices and gold prices fell, while the Dow futures and Nasdaq futures were pre-fall more than 1% for the recent unusual. I believe today’s Europe and the United States stock market will be fully back.

In view of this, profit taking today, although slightly rushed, it is still the best policy. In view of Europe and the United States financial markets are short-term risk and long-term risks can not be ignored, so, A stock market outlook, investors should wait and see, and not eager to re-entry transactions.