-Action: this year is to increase housing supply or decrease in
Land and Housing 2010, released by the Ministry for the program for many investors know the truth of the real estate stocks suffered some really frightened. God! Last year, the domestic real estate development enterprises combined area of land acquisition was only 31,900 hectares or 319.06 million square meters, can be to plan for this year's total surprise, housing up to 180,000 hectares or 18 million square meters, is 5.64 times the former. Some investors exclaimed, to substantially increase the land supply, housing prices had not climbed down to the beat. So, the news came out, property stocks plunged, investors Baotoushucuan.
This is a great misunderstanding.
Land Department to plan for public housing, is the total amount of housing land, most of which are not used for commercial housing development, that is not the most open market through auction to developers. According to Ministry of Land and news websites, 18 million hectares of total land available for housing among the security room space accounted for Bacheng. This means that developers will be available for purchase only 36,000 hectares of land, higher than the 2009 purchase of land area developers to 12.8%, but less than 08 developers purchased 36,800 hectares of land area 2.2%, less than 07 In developer land acquisition area of 40,200 hectares or 10.5%, the average annual land developers purchased the previous three years 99% of the area. Taking into account 06 ~ 2009 sales of commercial space up to 54.6% cumulative growth (2006 to 606 million square meters in 2009 to 937 million square meters), while the cumulative area of land acquisition developers increase of -13.32% (in 2006 to 368 million square meters in 2009 to 319 million square meters), a minus, indicating the year for developers to purchase the land area is relatively greatly reduced.
Since this year's acquisition of the land area available for developers compared to sales is much less, the kind that the future of commercial housing prices will drop significantly less than the views of the evidence. In order to infer the future performance of the slide in property shares the same view untenable.
Why, then, that huge increase in government policy outside the housing developers for the amount of it?
From the following set of data is not difficult to find the answer.
Since 2000, domestic commercial housing development will occupy an area of housing construction in general the situation is as follows:
Years
Area of commercial housing construction
Housing construction area
Proportion
2000
6.5897 million square meters
26.5294 million square meters of 24.84%
2001
7.7214 million square meters of 27.6025 million square meters of 27.97%
20029.4104 million square meters
30.4428 million square meters of 30.91%
200311.6907 34.3742 100 000 000 100 000 000 square meters square meters 34.01%
200,414.0451 100 million square meters
37.6459 million square meters
37.31%
200,516.4445 100 million square meters
43.1123 million square meters
38.14%
200,619.4090 100 million square meters
46.2677 million square meters
41.95%
200,723.6318 100 million square meters
54.8542 million square meters
43.08%
200,827.4149 100 million square meters
61.6528 million square meters
44.47%
2009
31.9600 million square meters
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
This set of data above shows that, with the commercial housing development in the gross domestic housing construction area increasing the proportion of non-commodity housing has continued to decline, resulting in more and more domestic residents, including low income levels of residents, have through had been rapidly rising property market to meet housing needs. To a large extent, the reason why domestic prices rose rapidly, housing prices rose too fast reason why the masses are very satisfied with the answer on this.
This shows that the reason for this massive expansion of government beyond the policy of housing developers for the program, mainly to compensate for the historical event of default, accumulated in previous years. However, too many outstanding loans, even though the policy this year to plan for massive expansion of housing is still far from meeting the real needs. This is why the majority of those surveyed think that the Government should also expand the housing supply of the main reasons of policy.
Next, as the expansion of housing supply after the policy can not meet the potential needs, together with housing policy purchasers or users and purchasers of commercial houses had existed between the significant income segment, it is difficult to expect land Department of Housing for the program can play the role of inhibition of property prices.
Released from the local government for the land plan, reports that Shanghai has announced for this year's housing program, at 1100 hectares (approximately by 3% over last year) of the total supply, the security room, studio commercial housing reform, and medium and small unit other three sites accounted for a total of 770 hectares; to include medium and small unit and "non-ordinary residence" of goods, including 400 hectares of residential land is only for the supply of four percent a year or so. This will definitely increase the demand and supply gap in Shanghai property market.
As for other means of inhibitory effect on property prices, based on past experience, I am afraid that rule this year, not next year rule. The so-called holding back urine, urinary 3 times a day and the day the results of urine 9 reduction in the number only, but the urine or as much.