Qing Yi: China's asset price bubble does not exist
[Japanese land price bubble burst in the real reasons (below)]
Fallen leaves will shatter the head? Frankly speaking, only those dissatisfied with a bottle, shake it all day in a half bottle things (children) do (children) of people would be face value. Worse, over-exaggerated the risk of the Chinese economy has become quite common in economic life phenomenon, including academics and decision-making. However, this does nothing to risk control, it touches will be a serious impediment to economic health.
Economists concerned about asset price bubble is actually paying attention to loan quality, and therefore decided to financial security. Loan quality is usually determined by the collateral. As a common collateral, land and stock prices is a measure of asset price bubbles and not. It said the asset price bubble, in fact, talking about the land price bubble and stock price bubble.
Yes, because in Japan most of the land as collateral for loans, while banks have a large number of holdings, land and stock prices rise over after the bubble burst there is indeed cause the Japanese economy since the nineties of the last century into a long-term downturn reasons. Land prices continued to fall by about collateral, banks surge in bad loans, to prevent further deterioration of the capital adequacy ratio, even if the long-term interest rate is zero, it can not prevent long-term loans of negative growth. This is the so-called zero interest rate Japan's economy, zero growth. However, the domestic equity as collateral for loans to be minimal, with a loan pledge of goods in the past, all for the price of equity is far below the market price of the Restricted Shares, and in calculating the value of the collateral Shi You are fully underestimated, no doubt, stock prices will not constitute a domestic asset price bubbles.
As for the land, taking into account the accumulated sales since 1986, commercial property (including commercial residential and commercial buildings) occupied 413 acres of land at best, even if two million yuan per mu according to the weighted average price calculation (previously used for commercial housing development The average land price of less than 100 yuan / mu, or even the year 2000 less than 500,000 yuan / mu), is private land holdings listed total assets total more than 8.3 trillion yuan, however, the corresponding premium rate (total premium on GDP ratio), only 25%, equivalent to only mature market one-seventh of the national average. For base reasons, the smaller base of assets and the land base of civil larger between GDP, even though the two annual growth rate of the same land ratio also decreased year by year. Therefore, there is no evidence that there exists land asset bubbles.
I would like to remind you that the premium rate to talk about aside land asset bubbles is not very professional.
Address the land ratio, the United States most years less than 100%, the UK most years 80% to 200% swing, while Japan rose in 1980 after more than 300%. According to Japanese scholars introduced in Japan in 1990, private land assets 2,400 trillion yen, equivalent to 341.14 trillion yen, then the official GDP statistics of 700%. Although the 1997 devaluation of land assets, to 1,700 trillion yen, but compared with the current GDP ratio as high as 441 percent premium.
Since 1986, total domestic sales of commercial area of 5.5 billion square meters, according to two times the average volume rate of land, occupied land area of commercial housing sold approximately 2.75 billion square meters in about, or about 413 million mu. It is worth noting in this commercial houses occupy 413 mu of land which have so far still in the proportion of multi-state collateral, but Liu Cheng, and mortgage of land replacement cost several times more than the cost of a mortgage or even 10 times. In this case, the private holdings of public land prices on the quality of bank loans is quite positive, where we talk about asset price bubbles!
To a large extent, not only the domestic private holdings of the current asset price of land there is no risk of a bubble, but a longer period of time in the future will not appear. The reason is the future trend of land prices are still rising, first transformation of the old with the relocation compensation costs which continue to promote the existing urban land prices, followed by rising food prices to promote the future of new urban land prices. On the other hand, the next 15 to 20 years as the expected increase in commercial housing land is 3 to 4 times the stock of the Government to increase land supply and land sales revenue growth, can also suppress the risk of domestic land assets price bubble to play an active effect.
From a psychological point of view, the reason that people exaggerate the risk, often due to lack of confidence, complacency or laziness. All these are unhealthy psychological characteristics.
Over-inflated asset price bubble in the domestic land-harm is: If you do not rush in labor costs due to the shortage of labor supply rose sharply prior to accelerate the commercial housing development, then, on the one hand all future construction materials will be accompanied by rising labor costs rise, so developers cost is high; the other hand, the current excess liquidity (the so-called lack of liquidity tightening is only man-made or create a false impression) will as the means of production and the overall rise in consumer prices, the evolution of the flow of depreciation as well as liquidity shortages, so that the purchasing power of existing commercial houses a substantial decline in the whole society. By that time, not only land be cut down, and commodity prices will rise a new retaliatory.