Archive for October, 2010

Relations between the real estate from the variable impact on the economy

Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

-Action: The Relationship between variables influence on the economy of real estate

No matter what is in favor of or opposed to what should be reasonable, be logically correct, factually correct.

What is the relationship between variables? Variable relations in mathematics, also known as topology, that is an object of continuous deformation in space and time attached to the relationship between different variables. On the macro-economic terms, is to observe the major variables that affect the GDP, analysis of these variables and the relationship between GDP growth.

Let's look at the situation in 2008. 2008 GDP growth of 9.6%, down sharply over the 3.4 percent growth rate. Growth factor specific to the investment in fixed assets rose 25.5%, 0.7 percentage points over the previous year; the growth of total social retail 21.6%, 4.8 percentage points over the previous year; exports grew 7.24%, an increase of 13.21 percent over the previous year down . Only from these variables, it seems that lead to economic slowdown is mainly due to the export slowdown, or by the financial crisis.

However, if the notes in 2008 annual sales of new homes fell by 34.92 percent, while an increase of 13.5% over the previous year; noted that in 2008 the newly built commercial housing sales, declining by 19.5%, while an increase of 42.1% over the previous year; noted that the central bank had previously illogical personal mortgage interest rates significantly increased to 8.61%, it is not difficult to draw conclusions: in 2008 China's economic slowdown led to the real reason is that real estate over-tightening policy in a substantial decline.

Look at the situation again in 2009. 2009 GDP growth of 8.7%, down 0.9 percentage points over the previous year; fixed asset investment grew 30.1%, 4.6 percentage points over the previous year to speed up; social retail sales grew 15.5%, down 6.1 percentage points over the previous year; exports -16% , down 23.24 percentage points over the previous year; but only 82.8% of sales of commercial property (in 2009 4.4 trillion, in 2008 2.41 trillion), second-hand housing sales increase of more than 200% is.

For whom, we can not deny that real estate in today's pillar industry of China's economic role, unless he is a nerd, is subjective dogmatist, or ignorance, and emotional elements. My words are strong enough, but the character dictates, can not be changed. What men say, of course, sonorous, powerful, can not be submissive.

How the debt crisis affected China, Greece

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

By the rating agencies lowered the Greek sovereign credit rating to junk long-term impact of the external market in general fell sharply. However, in the domestic banking sector, petroleum and petrochemical sector growth in support of a quarter, the A shares Xianyihouyang today. To the closing stock index reporting 2,900.33 points, slightly 0.26%.

Could see, A shares on a major message from the external market is not sensitive. Indeed, over the debt crisis is expected to Greece's negative impact on China's economy, hardly wise.

The reason why Greece is highly concerned about the debt crisis, because the country has seen in the sovereign debt crisis, not only for its cast a shadow over the domestic economic outlook, but also for the euro's future uncertain. Greece, the real debt crisis more euro crisis. Euro problem is inherent. And sovereignty, monetary and financial systems and monetary systems were combined, and woe in a different situation, as a regional common currency euro, is not to establish a unified financial system in the same over. Thus, any member of the financial system problems, the effects will spread across borders of other member countries and the euro's fate. While Germany had the intention of the Greek out of euro zone countries, but also make the euro hurt. To a large extent, the euro quickly became the reason why the international reserve currency, with its close ties expansion prospects.

Euro by Greece is facing a debt crisis is difficult to be alleviated through continued depreciation, as people worry about the prospect of the dollar level of no better than the weak euro. People will eventually believe that the dollar Ye Hao, euro worth mentioning, among them the status of the international monetary system will continue to weaken both.

This is precisely the point. I prefer to believe, the Greek international debt crisis will accelerate the process of the yuan, but on the price of RMB internationalization of the yuan revaluation (fish and bear's paw can not have both), so the impact on China will first be achieved through the appreciation of the renminbi of.

By the way, the central bank recently the so-called "interest rate and exchange rate will be fixed one," saying it was to the effect, because the interest rate and not a substitute for appreciation, it touches will further increase the upward pressure, while the interest rate rise does fit relieve the pressure. That being said, the recent appreciation of the RMB is much larger than expected rate hike expectations.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) or two up five. Jiangling Motors and Hefei Urban Construction were up 3.07% and 1.26%. Today, once short-listed Weichai Power Dikaigaozou morning, after being sold and closing edged lower 0.25%. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the last trading day of -12.53% to -11.12%, the cumulative increase of 15 nice rebound from 32.29% to 34.42%. Thus, the beautiful 15 from September 1, 2009 the cumulative increase since the main stock index has been 4.26 times increase over the same period, despite the recent performance as expected.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 28
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)

000528
Liugong 21.57 20.97 -2.78 8.8
2.39 (10 expected)

000550 JMC 22.84
3.07 10.0
2.28 (10 expected)

600449
Racing Industry 35.23 26.40 -25.06 11.6
2.28

000961
South Building 19.35 15.04 -22.27 6.9
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 22.70 -15.68 13.5
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction
22.70
-14.89 16.8
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338
Weichai Power
60.97
-0.25
8.17.50 (10 expected)

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average -11.12 10.8

"Beautiful 15" 51.24 34.42

Beautiful 15 leading index 304. 74%
326.52% (4.2652-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 2900.33
8.07

Heavyweight stabilized

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Bank shares in the first quarter by four percent to encourage performance EADS were mixed today, A shares open higher in the afternoon again pulled up, helpless and subject shares late small plates bad news fast by hazy edge lower, weighed on the market under pressure. To the closing stock index reported 2868.43 points, down 1.10%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) or a suspension of a rose 5. Hefei Urban Construction up 2.03%. After three consecutive trading days up heavy volume after the Jiangling Motors today shrinkage adjustment, although the decline and closing up 8.06%, but volume can be relations, is expected to re-market outlook is still strong. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the last trading day of -11.12% to -12.98%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful down from 34.42% to 31.61%, a beautiful 15 from September 1, 2009 since cumulative gains for the main stock index rise of 4.59 times over the same period.

From tomorrow, the third of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) and then there are new faces, short-listed for the sustainable growth of the constituent stocks is full of Fukuda car. A Quarterly Bulletin revealed that various types of vehicle sales in the company rose 47% last year based on the further sharp increase of 42.9%. Operating income increased as the clear leader in operating costs increase, profit margin expansion, net profit rose 179%, report 0.566 yuan per share, is the 2009 half-year earnings per share of 1.15 times. In a number of construction project will be put into the case, expects a capacity planning problem will be better this year, the annual earnings per share of 2.26 yuan a breakthrough possible, the current dynamic price-earnings ratio is only 8.9 times.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 29
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)

000528
Liugong 21.57 20.43 -5.28 8.5
2.39 (10 expected)

000550 JMC 21.00 -5.23
9.2
2.28 (10 expected)

600449
Racing Industry 35.23 26.40 -25.06 11.6
2.28

000961
South Building 19.35 14.97 -22.64 6.9
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 22.11 -17.87 13.2
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction
23.16
-13.16 17.2
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338
Weichai Power
60.14
-1.60
8.07.50 (10 expected)
600 166
FOTON
20.11
8.9
2.26 (10 expected)

(Which, due to short-listed at different times, Jiangling Motors, Hefei Urban Construction, Weichai Power and Fukuda benchmark price of motor vehicles were 22.16 yuan, 26.67 yuan, 61.12 yuan and 20.11 yuan)

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average -12.98 10.4

"Beautiful 15" 51.24
31.61

Beautiful 15 leading index
304.74%
359.45% (4.5945-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 2868.43 6.88