-Action: a beautiful 15 newsletter
Domestic revenues to the GDP ratio is 20% or 40% or more? This is obviously a big problem. From the state bureau of statistics, in 1978 and 2009, fiscal revenue ratio of the GDP were 31.1% and 20.4%. Intuitively, this ratio is significantly decreased. However, always look at the issue directly, I am afraid that many problems can makes mistakes. A stone and a piece of jade of the blocks containing, visually see all the stone, but they are essentially different.
According to World Bank statistics, in 2006 the central government revenue on the world average GDP ratio is 26.9%, 27.3% developed countries. However, the same countries, the United States is only 19.3%, while France and Britain but were as high as 43.0% and 38.8%. Central Plains from the United States were less state-owned enterprises, while French and British are more state-owned enterprises.
Precisely, not only to revenue including government tax and other benefits imposed by the Government of alienation, but also should include government ownership of property assets, income, and sales of goods and services revenue.
China's fiscal revenue of the reason why the ratio of GDP substantially below the world average, due to domestic revenue statistics do not align with international scope, limited to the loss of tax revenue and subsidies to state-owned enterprises. This is very unscientific. Since the loss of subsidies to state-owned enterprises can be included in financial income, then, why the income available for distribution of state-owned enterprises can not be regarded as financial income? Preliminary estimates, if calculated in accordance with international practice on domestic revenue ratio of GDP, probably has more than 40%. No wonder, after all, China is a country with the highest proportion of state assets.
As of the end of 2009, only the scale domestic state-owned and state holding enterprises as much as 20.7 trillion total assets, equity assets totaled 8 trillion, respectively, the total sum of above-scale enterprises, 44% and 42%. This does not include the unfinished transformation of the Ministry of Railways and other departments into enterprises owned by state-owned assets, nor will the state-owned shares and the market value of the difference between the book value included. For example, in the oil inside and outside by the weighted average total stock of about 1.7 trillion total market capitalization, government share of 86% or higher. Conservative estimates, the current government in the hands of listed equity of not less than 13.5 trillion total market capitalization.
I note that, in assessing the risk of sovereign debt, people often neglect the state-owned assets held by the Government on sovereign debt repayment capacity of the positive effect. In fact, with the company can sell assets to repay debt in the case, the government can also, through the sale of state assets to repay the sovereign debt financing, especially domestic debt. Needless to say, the government-owned state-owned assets into account, the Chinese government (including local government) the solvency of the unparalleled.
From this point of view, the so-called debt surged to 7.38 trillion places may drag down China's economic argument is a serious risk of domestic sovereign debt overestimated.
Asia-Pacific stock markets generally rose today, the Nikkei rose 3.24%, ASX ordinary shares rose 2.33%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.62%, but only A shares may drop further. To the closing stock index reported 2552.66 points, down 0.73%. Unit 3, 9, or a beautiful rose, up 2.27% Hefei Urban Construction, Tianshan shares rose 1.93%. To close in the third period of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) growth with an average cumulative increase from yesterday's -14.72% to -15.68%, a beautiful combination of 15 cumulative average growth of 28.98 percent gain from yesterday fell to 27.53 percent. Today, 15 blue-chip portfolio continues to plumb pretty average cumulative gain of -3.27% from yesterday and then to -3.48%.
The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Growth Portfolio Presentation
Code
Referred to as March 4 June 3 cumulative increase the dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share
Close (yuan) close (yuan) (%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000 528 Liugong 21.5718.76-13.037.8
239 (10 expected)
000 550 JMC 18.57-16.208.1
228 (10 expected)
600 449 horse industry 35.2322.32-36.64
9.8
2.28
000 961 Central Building 19.358.40-34.88
5.8
1.45 (10 expected)
600 742 FAW-rich-dimensional
26.9217.32-35.6610.3
1.68
002 208 20.25 Hefei Urban Construction
-24.0715.0
1.35 (10 expected)
000 338 Weichai Power 57.48
-5.967.77.50 (10 expected)
600 166 FOTON 17.57-12.637.8
2.26 (10 expected)
000,877 Shares 20.55-3.2018.3 Tianshan
1.12
000 708 Daye Special Steel
11.55-8.55
9.0
1.28 (10 expected)
600 089 TBEA
16.94-0.4116.9
1.00 (10 expected)
600 197
Yilite
15.223.0529.8
0.51 (10 expected)
(Which, due to short-listed at different times, JMC, Hefei Urban Construction, Weichai Power, Futian Automobile, Tianshan shares, Daye Special Steel, TBEA and Yilite benchmark prices were 22.16 yuan, 26.67 yuan, 61.12 yuan , 20.11 yuan, 21.23 yuan, 12.63 yuan, 17.01 yuan and 14.77 yuan)
The third phase of "beautiful 15" average -15.6812.2
"Beautiful 15" growing portfolio 51.2427.53
Pretty index of 15 leading
304.74%
The Shanghai Composite Index (September 1 2009 2683.72) 2552.66-4.88
15 beautiful blue-chip portfolio presentation
Code
Abbreviation
May 7
June 3
Total increase (%)
601398 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
4.39
4.22
-0.47
601 857 Oil 11.04
10.62-2.66
600,028 Sinopec
9.018.39-6.88
600019 Baoshan Iron & Steel
6.43
6.28-2.33
600,050 China Unicom
5.35
5.08-5.05
15 beautiful blue-chip portfolio -3.48