-Action: in the first quarter to the good macro-economic trend is clearly
Just released the first quarter, according to macroeconomic data, GDP growth rate by 11.9%, better than expected; CPI rose 2.2%, lower than expected, said the resumption of China's economy is to develop in the direction of growth and low inflation.
The reason is the recovery of GDP rise, but can not understand for the growth of overheating, a very good reason, because the rate of increase over the same period last year by the financial crisis was only 6.1%.
The reason is the low inflation, it is not complicated, because the urban-rural income growth over the same period were 7.5% and 9.2%, while the CPI increase of only 2.1% in urban and rural growth rate of 2.4% in urban income growth is the consumer price increase of 3.57 times the income of rural residents is the increase in consumer price inflation of 3.83 times. Ye Hao inflation, deflation worth mentioning, are reflected in the relationship between prices and income. Determine inflation, must not only look at price increases at the expense of revenue growth.
In fact, due to rising incomes Engel coefficient, while the existing statistical methods in food prices, CPI, or the proportion of established many years ago, which determines the CPI there is the possibility of overestimation of consumer price increases. This means that, once adjusted CPI statistical methods next year, because of agricultural and food prices caused by inflation is expected to be relieved.
For an increase in interest rates were at least made three mistakes: First, ignore the relationship between prices and income, the second is to ignore the current rapid economic growth but recovery of the three is to ignore the nature of the interest rate. The nature of the interest rate is the average profit margin of the whole society, engulfed in the raw material price increases where corporate profits, interest rates can only inhibit the capacity utilization, thereby increasing pressure on the employment market.