Archive for July, 2010

Contradiction with the expected interest rate rise

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Recent soaring international commodity markets on the one hand is affected by soaring prices of iron ore a long association double traction, on the other hand I am afraid that with the foreign investors generally expect further appreciation of the renminbi. Various aspects of the message to determine the yuan's recent appreciation of the possibilities are.

At the same time, the voice of the resurgence of domestic interest rates. It is noteworthy that interest rates and expected appreciation is extremely contradictory. First of all, the original expectation of RMB appreciation would stimulate the flow of hot money, and once interest rates, equal to the expected appreciation of this piece of cake to hang frosting, hot money inflows becomes stronger. Second, the positive role of RMB appreciation is to expand domestic demand, but interest rates on the contrary is to curb domestic demand, real interest rates, and appreciation of the negative factors will become one-sided. Third, the idea that raising interest rates to curb property prices is wishful thinking to say, because the interest rate on the property market is far greater than the supply constraint for the role of demand and increased supply of future cases to stimulate the property market prices rise revenge. This point had been repeatedly been fully verified.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) full down, except Liugong, the decline was less than 1%. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the previous trading day 2.84% down to 1.76%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful down 53.90 percent from 55.54 percent.

From tomorrow, the third of a beautiful 15 (reduced version) to add a constituent stocks - Hefei Urban Construction (002208). Partly due to good growth stock performance this year, in the first quarter increased 35 times expected earnings per share 0.37 yuan, the annual earnings per share 1.20 yuan more than in 2009 achieved 0.693 yuan, and distribution plan to send 10 to switch 5 get 5 0.6 element; in part because of the previous five did better than expected performance of the constituent stocks of the Hefei Urban poor need to be encouraging about.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 7
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 22.83 5.84 17.2
1.33
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
18.08 -1.74
12.7
1.42
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
35.78 1.56 15.7
2.28
000961
South Building 19.35 20.17 4.24 9.3
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 26 .62 -1.11 15.8
1.68
002 208
Hefei Urban Construction 26.76
22.3
1.20 (10 expected)

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average 1.76
14.1

"Beautiful 15" 51.24 53.90

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74%
211.83% (3.1183-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3148.22 17.31

The bad news pushed the dollar index pressured the stock market

Monday, July 26th, 2010

-Action: The bad news pushed the dollar index the stock market under pressure

The first week after the Spring Festival Xianyihouyang A-share market, where Tuesday afternoon, significant buying opportunity, but are super-short-term nature, only a small amount of the proposed involvement of Friends of beautiful stock, "a beautiful 15" is still entertained. If you choose profit taking today, there will be a percent or so large as proceeds.

Many people may have concerns of today's profits because the stock market rising afternoon heavy volume, indicating institutional interest is strong to do more. However, due to special circumstances this year, I am sure more reliance on trading opportunities in the international financial market analysis, rather than the main trends observed disk.

Sure, the bad news of the European trading session. First, the euro zone economic confidence index in February fell unexpectedly to 95.9, significantly lower than the previous survey of 25 economists forecast given by the average value of 96.4. Followed by both Standard & Poor's and Moody's, said Greece's debt rating may be lowered within a month, because the government cut the budget deficit problem in facing difficulties. In addition, Moody's Investors Service (Moody's
Investor
Service) report released today, said that if the Japanese government can not do more to solve the debt problems of the country concerned, it may be Japan's sovereign credit rating outlook lowered to negative.

The above information as a reason for the dollar index rose by no means far-fetched. To this writing, the dollar index has rebounded to 81.12.

It is noteworthy that the dollar index and the stock market and commodity market trends often reverse. As more bad news pushed the dollar index, crude oil prices and gold prices fell, while the Dow futures and Nasdaq futures were pre-fall more than 1% for the recent unusual. I believe today's Europe and the United States stock market will be fully back.

In view of this, profit taking today, although slightly rushed, it is still the best policy. In view of Europe and the United States financial markets are short-term risk and long-term risks can not be ignored, so, A stock market outlook, investors should wait and see, and not eager to re-entry transactions.