Archive for May, 2010

Rising commodity prices, where government responsibility

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

Ching Yee: rising commodity prices, where government responsibility

Good government is shirking its responsibility not the government. In big government, the context of small markets, domestic commodity prices continue to rise residential responsibility comes down to whether the market is still down to the government, which originally was a difficult question to answer.

Unfortunately, a long time, the government's actions at the policy level, the market has reflected an enemy, repeatedly stressed the rapid rise in prices of commercial housing developers and home buyers because of the speculation, so the price the responsibility of continuing high overall push to the market, but only remember a review should be the responsibility of their own.

Is the Government really can shirk responsibility for it? The answer of course is no.

Looking around the world, both in mature market economies, or economies in transition, residential demand can not and should not be met entirely through market means. Which way the market corresponding to the commercial housing, corresponding to non-market approach is to protect the house. Population growth, especially driven by urbanization, population structure, economic situation, whether in prosperity or depression, domestic demand is always rigid. This determines the way the market that can not be liable to commercial housing to meet housing needs must be by the Government through non-market approach to the protection of housing to meet, also decided among the commercial houses and security room should maintain a proper ratio, otherwise the price of commodity houses inevitable volatility, and thus increase the whole society on the housing dissatisfaction.

As a planned economy to a market economy in transition economies, the problem of key domestic residential, Zheng Fu Guo Cheng Zhong could not properly cope with transformation between commercial houses and Bao Zhang Housing proportional relationship Biao Xian Wei repeated tightening security over the supply room, Poshi should follow the original Bu ways to meet the market demand for housing residents were driven to commercial housing market, so demand for commercial housing prices in the over-stimulated growth of abnormal rise. There is no doubt, due to commercial housing and the protection of the proportional relationship between house severely damaged, over rising commodity prices is not the primary responsibility for the market, should rather more by the government.

Before 1985, the domestic housing market is almost non-existent goods, all residents of the housing problems are to be addressed through the security room, the statistics show a ratio of 100 percent protection room. To 1986, completed the domestic residential area of 1.205 billion square meters of total sales of commercial property area of only 18.35 million square meters of commercial housing by seven as calculated, then the total commercial residential or residential commercial residential rate ratio of 1.07%.

10 years later, in 1996 completed the domestic residential square meters total area of 1.219 billion, while sales of commercial property rose to 68.98 million square meters area, as calculated by seven become a commodity residential, residential commercial rates to 3.96%. In another 10 years, and in 2006 completed the domestic residential area of 1.314 billion square meters of total, domestic sales of goods rose to 606 million square meters area, 10-year cumulative increase of up to 779 percent, while the protection of housing supply from 10 years ago to 1.15 billion square meters of atrophy to 890 million square meters below the fold so large domestic commercial rate raised to 32.28%.

By 2007, China completed a total area of housing increased to 1.463 billion square meters, though, but the area ahead of commercial residential sales rose to 774 million square meters, of which approximately 5.5 billion square meters of residential, commercial residential rate which makes the re-raised to 37.6%. View of the area of commercial housing were sold in 2009 and further increased to 937 million square meters, of which not less than 700 million square meters of residential, believe that commercialization of the domestic rate of residential break 43%. However, even in developed economies, domestic commercial rates reach this level, many only about three percent.

Overall, from 1986 to 2009, domestic sales of domestic product increased 509 times the total area, while from 1986 to 2008, completed the domestic security residential area of 22.56% cumulative decline. Taking into account the same period the urban population by the rapid growth of 264 million to 6.1 million, due to security room formed by shrinking the supply of housing shortage problem is very prominent. Thus, the commercial housing prices have risen steeply down to the responsibility of commercial housing and the protection ratio between housing imbalance and the government does not properly protect the housing supply crunch, is totally established.

Usually a person's good or bad according to his ability to take responsibility for others to judge. By inference, on the middle and low income housing needs of the responsibility of government to protect the rich, long-term protection of housing supply contraction laissez-faire, especially given the protection of housing supply, urban population growth is relatively rapid decline, while allowing domestic commercial rate of abnormal increase can not said to be a great mistake. I have considered this point was very polite.

No exaggeration to say that if the government can not guarantee the domestic commercial housing and the ratio between house restored to an appropriate level of commercial housing prices rose too fast the whole problem will not solve the long-term. According to the current level of national income estimates, the total newly added commercial residential proportion of new residential or residential commercial rate should be controlled at 25%, which is over 43% of the current commercial rate compared to the domestic housing is clearly there huge gap.

The past three years the proportion of bank loans to the houses, an average of only 2 percent

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

-Action: the last three years the proportion of bank loans for the houses, an average of only 2 percent

In recent years, an increase of the value of domestic household savings fluctuate significantly. According to data provided by the central bank website, the 2006 value of 2.05 trillion yuan increase, to 2007 dropped significantly from 1.09 trillion yuan, while in 2008 and then surged to 4.54 trillion yuan.

Why an increase of the value of domestic household savings will be like a tree monkey as Shangcuanxiatiao? Results of the analysis is that this is the relationship between commercial housing sales data are very close. From the state bureau of statistics, China has experienced residential sales increased slightly in 2006, the 2007 rate of increase jumped to 46.5%, while in 2008 an increase of -20.1%. It would appear that household savings are mainly used for Sellers not too little.

It is noteworthy that in 2008 domestic sales of domestic reason for such significant decline was mainly due to the financial crisis is not subject to outside influence, but the central bank from 2007 to December 21 of the several interest rate, commercial banks will be self-employed individual housing lending rate of 5.31% from the 2004 and 2005 to 6.12% significantly increased to 8.61%. Such a high mortgage interest rates, even if playing Jiuzhe, also means that the two settled into a down payment after 20 years together, the residents of the total debt service is equivalent to more than double the loan principal. This of course will be a severe blow to the enthusiasm of residents of purchase, the money can only deposit banks.

However, the central bank in 2007 excessive increases in interest rates in individual housing loans, in addition to domestic sales led to a substantial shrinkage of the domestic but also had another effect, which is the annual commercial banks to increase the value of individual housing loans and new loans in the year the same year, China accounted for the proportion of domestic sales (hereinafter referred to as "the year of exposure the houses") were significantly shrink. This is the proportion of buyers among the residents of the whole section up the results, but the whole paragraph is not necessarily a part of borrowing from banks other than (their business model see my previous Bowen: "must raise interest rates for mortgage loans to promote" conversion of silver "" ).

To Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, for example, 08 new individual housing loans 61.0 billion, compared with 126.1 billion yuan over the previous year, declining by as much as 52%. In the meantime, to 2008 sales of 2.04 trillion yuan of domestic residential computing, industrial and commercial bank "loans to the houses, the proportion of the year," only 2.99%, and in 2007 accounted for 4.93%.

With Industrial and Commercial Bank of China of the above, should be able to calculate all the commercial banks, "loans that year the proportion of the houses," the important data. As the domestic housing loans concentrated in industry, in construction of three lines, and other joint-stock banks, of which ICBC transaction volume to account for 22% of the total transactions, whereby all commercial banks in 2008 "the year the proportion of loans for the houses," should be less than 15%, in 2007 the level is merely 25%.

While in September 2008 after the central bank to gradually come to realize significant reduction in individual housing loan interest rates, and to offer a higher discount, does the promotion of commercial banks in 2009 new housing loans quick recovery, but according to my analysis, in 2009 the "year house sales exposure, "but a return to 2007 levels, which is about 25%.

That being said, the last three years, domestic commercial banks, "loans to the houses, then the proportion of" no more than 22%.

It should be said, both for the central bank, commercial banks, or developers, and residents of participating buyers, this is an important indicator of a help to decision-making.

The central bank is concerned, since the bank "year of exposure houses," so low down-payment ratio by limiting two suites to regulate domestic demand and the price is low efficiency. For commercial banks concerned, "the year of exposure the houses," the decline, in fact means that the domestic private lending for housing growth. The central bank and commercial banks must understand that to raise interest rates once again, there will be more mortgage loans from the bank lending flows Minjian, and in "the year the houses, loans Bili" After falling further weaken the monetary policy and the banking system Guonei residential Shi Chang influence.

The developer is concerned, the lower bank "loans that year the proportion of the houses," meaning how to encourage and strive for a higher proportion of all home buyers section will be that they build for the future of real estate development financing system of the main direction. Only in this way, developers can get rid of monetary policy and banking from the heavy shackles.

Residents in terms of participating buyers, the domestic household disposable assets increased year after year, under the circumstances, the use of mutual aid among relatives and friends to reduce borrowing for house purchase costs and the cost, obviously much more cost effective than the bank loan.

Of course, the above also implies that the domestic private hot money is not scarce, as you can into the property market, as long as the opportunity to mature into the stock market may not.

Really sunny

Friday, May 7th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Not expected yesterday, today, A shares hot, short cold at large heavy volume up stocks stock index closed at 3147.42 points, up 1.23%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) 4 up 1 down. City house prices have soared in the second and third line excitation, the South building to continue to rise effective amplification, full-day or 4%, Liugong, Qian Luntai and the FAW have also rise rich dimension. But by the drag racing industry fell 3.29%, to close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 yesterday, only by 1.45% to 2.62%, a beautiful 15 cumulative increase of 53.43 percent from yesterday rose to 55.20 percent.

South Africa construction of the rising for the 4th, but the volume and price is very good, quite to further break up the posture. Horse racing industry once again edge lower, but future growth remains strong, led a very positive initiative and buying admission, abnormal amplification volume is expected to reverse V-not a problem. As expected the first quarter of very strong growth performance, Qian Luntai rebound, optimistic market outlook.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 1 cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 22.29 3.34 16.8
1.33
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
17.72 -3.70
12.5
1.42
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
36.46 3.49 16.0
2.28
000961
South Building 19.35 21.05 8.79 9.6
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 27.24
1.19 16.2
1.68

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average 2.62
14.2

"Beautiful 15" 51.24 55.20

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74%
219.44% (3.1944-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3147.42 17.28