Archive for April, 2010

Situation remains grim

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Today is the Hong Kong stock index futures settlement date, HSI struggling to move up, so long hoped to reduce the formation of the former all the way down and do more damage. Under the leadership of the Hong Kong stock, A stock rally. To close, the Shanghai index was at 2994.14 points, was up 0.25%; Shenzhen Stock Index Report 12,120.5 points, up 0.61%; small board index report 5383.96 points, up 1.43%. Hang Seng Index Hong Kong stocks narrowed afternoon gains, closing at 20,356.37 percent, up 1.61%.

Today, a beautiful 15 down, one level, a suspension, the rest all up. Shares rose a maximum of Tianshan. Since last Friday entertained since the broader market continued to edge down. To today, when the pretty entertained by the cumulative increase of 15 46.00% calculated on the broader market-leading range from 177.44% (or 2.77 times) jumped sharply to 297.58% (or 3.98 times). This fully shows that the original choice is right or entertained.

Although today's A shares, led by different degrees of Hong Kong stocks rebound, the performance of 15 is also pretty good, but still firmly believe that now is not grab a rebound at the right time nor the time to re-strategic Jiancang Hou.

First of all, Hong Kong stocks rebound today, with the settlement of the index, as for tomorrow, start a new round of futures trading, as February comes just as the Spring Festival holiday, with many market uncertainties, I believe there will not be as before long the strong rise in early pattern.

Secondly, Obama's State of the Union as a positive very reluctantly. America's long-term deficit problem is a headache, but also long-term negative factors inhibit the U.S. economy. Just think, since the new jobs last year were from the United States Government to increase the proportion of expenditure is too large, the Obama determined to cut government spending, the U.S. domestic employment situation will become more difficult. Obama The increase in employment, is sent to encourage the middle class to increase spending to achieve. This seems to be back in the old path of Reagan economics: a person's spending is another person's job. Worse, the money to subsidize the middle class come from? If a tax cut, future deficits will be even more serious. To a large extent, Congress investors to see Obama speech with enthusiastic applause long time (some are directed at Michelle come) and the emotional were encouraged. Politicians has always been the case, but investors have to maintain the necessary clear.

Third, the domestic inter-bank interest rates rose yesterday certainly not a good thing. This means that the current lack of market liquidity. In theory, if the interest rate, can inhibit the market's funding needs, and thus ease the supply and demand. Almost certainly, in January price increase will be more than 12 months, on the one hand is the base of the reasons and the reason is the weather wind and snow. Of course, in industrial terms, oil prices are significantly higher than in January last year. Thus, the central bank from January by the pressure of price increases is still the possibility of rate hikes should not underestimate the effect.

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Beautiful 15 today Aspect

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

15 chose pretty complex set today, as large as the following three reasons: First of all, more than one month after the adjustment, there are signs of stabilizing international financial markets, the dollar index gains, such as passivation, the United Kingdom and the European Central Bank to maintain low interest rate policy unchanged, the Greek debt crisis had come to an end, strong commodity markets, crude oil prices which the most obvious. Secondly, so far, inflation expectations before the end of last year began to weaken, the pressure of domestic interest rates faded, the interest rate policy impact on the share price less than the symmetry unfounded. Third, the A shares in shock after the adjustment, Sinopec in oil and crude oil prices expected to fall who have been oppressed, as crude oil prices back on the 80 U.S. dollars a barrel, the concern was temporarily lifted, with shares down to the section re- before the low, so the impact of super-heavyweight on the broader market turned positive. In addition, HSBC Hong Kong stocks had fallen to 81 yuan low, with strong trends within the bank shares, A shares and H shares of bank stocks post on the future trends are also supported.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) 3 up 2 down, horse industry rose 2.98%, up 1.49% FAW-rich dimension, although the South building sales, the corresponding average increase drag, but in comparison with yesterday, the third of a beautiful 15 still closed up 0.21%. Since last September 1, counting 15 has accumulated a beautiful rose to 51.56 percent, or more than 0.32 percentage points yesterday to expand slightly.

Horse racing industry is expected to rise in 2009 annual results is clearly positive, but more importantly, the support price or get transferred from the high expectations. For more than 10 yuan of net assets per share for companies that no doubt the rapid development of the future needs of capital expansion to strengthen the financing capacity.

FAW rich dimension in 2009 full year forecasted to range from 50 to 100%, the estimated earnings per share reached 1.59 yuan at least. That being said, even if not ideal to send to switch plans, and now the dynamic price-earnings ratio is attractive enough, after all, the domestic car market this year, prospects remain favorable.

Talking about growth prospects for the 2010 results have been disclosed in the annual report of the South building is clearly more attractive. Annual report, the company earlier this year nearly 5.1 billion balance of receipts in advance, which means that, even if the sale is not the first half of a penny, South building can be recognized in revenue of 40 billion yuan, which is equivalent to the first half of last year twice the revenue. It is worth mentioning that the sales in the fourth quarter, with domestic prices reached record levels in the background. So, even if only to confirm the first half of this year more than 5.1 billion of which 70% of receipts in advance, and can achieve about 0.75 yuan per share. This will significantly reduce the current dynamic stock price-earnings ratio. In addition, the restructuring of assets as the company completed last year, the major shareholders into the so-called "10 companies" which, including the Hainan Wenchang South property. In Hainan, friends told me that the construction of Wenchang South real estate projects, both size and taste, all left a deep impact.

Pretty complex set of 15 finally, and I wish you a happy investment.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
March 5 cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (element)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 21.54 -0.14
17.4
1.24
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
18.42 0.11
13.2
1.39
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
36.28 2.98 15.2
2.38
000961
Central Building 19.35 18.69 -3.41 21.0
0.89

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 27.32 1.49 17.1
1.59

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average 0.21
16.8

"Beautiful 15" 51.56

Pretty index of 15 leading 304.74 %
298.45% (3.9845-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3031.06 12.94
25.6

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China's large foreign aggression the next twenty years

Saturday, April 24th, 2010

Qing Yi: China's large foreign aggression the next twenty years

A rich sense of crisis the country is worthy of respect for. Obama said: "I will never accept the U.S. as the second." His words won the congressional Democratic and Republican members all stood up and responded with thunderous applause and a long time. From, and I smell a high degree of concentration of U.S. political sense of crisis.

American sense of crisis, of course from China. Although Americans know that per capita GDP, China, 100 years can not exceed the United States, but is becoming increasingly clear that China surpass the U.S. GDP has left little time. When more than two years ago, I suggested that China will achieve annual economic output in 2018 surpassed the U.S. at the right time Americans to the effect that, this moment will not come back in 2030. Today, Americans have come to believe that, by 2015, China's industrial output will surpass the United States.

In fact, Americans are more worried about is that a highly centralized state, even if the standard of living of the majority of its citizens still at a very low level, but also to the United States in the strategic threat posed enough. And then the Americans out of consideration of laissez-faire ideology of the Japanese economy at full speed to become the world's second difference is that they believe that the formation of the two countries for historical reasons it is difficult to cross the ideological divide, and therefore, the United States must do everything possible to defend The world's sole superpower status. Obviously, this sentence is: The United States will be determined at all costs beyond the U.S. to contain China's economic momentum.

Backward productive forces in human history, defeated not uncommon example of the advanced productive forces. Then productivity is still in the nomadic phase of the Huns, Khitan, Mongolia and other neighboring small country (which is also centralized), and then repeatedly beat the world number one rule at the time the productive forces in China.

Americans certainly know that history. Military experts said the United States is accelerating the pace of a mission to be completed between 2020 to 2030 the four branches of the military's strategic transformation objective is to form a military strike capability of China's absolute. Thus, military experts from more than Obama "never accept" the remarks of the remarks, and even smell of the United States between 2020 to 2030 China's determination to use force.

If Americans as rich a sense of crisis and deserve respect, then we are careless and lack a sense of crisis in the Chinese people, sooner or later, will again become a ghost powers of the sword.

On second thought, the United States to contain China's economy once again become the world's first effort, it is likely the fault of the Chinese people to do as Sun Tzu said, "without fighting the enemy."

Bo closure last week during the operation I had intentionally written a year ago, an article on the top of China's economic strategy for your reference. Series of articles in the thing I read them, I learned from the perspective of Population Economics, warning us: 2028, China's economy does not win the big development is the face disaster. One of the basic logic is: If you can not rush the full realization of industrialization in 2028, marked by more than 70% of the population into the cities, 80% of the national non-agricultural population, then, with the working population to peak in 2017 (15 ~ 64 population of 999 million years old), the total population to the 2021 peak (13.87 million), and the subsequent 80 years the total population decreased over a long period (to 2100 only 5.6 million people), China's economy will be devastated. The full extent of the domestic agricultural population as the proportion of time determined.

Qing note that, in today's world most populous country among the to 2100, only China, the development of fast decreasing year by year trend, the trend of the United States rose to 600 million people or more. The last time the U.S. population (now more than 300 million people) doubled in less than 60 years. Even so, even if the discount, 80 years later, in 2090, the total U.S. population is expected to exceed 600 million people.

China thousands of years has never been out of national interests and the history of foreign troops. This is not ashamed. However, not knowing the history of China, among the thousands of years has always been plundered by foreign powerful enemy, even after the Great Wall has not changed the history of humiliation. A study two years ago, when I put the history of humiliation attributed to the blind pursuit of savings and liquidity management - to your life saving money, so the money accumulate, and robbers came.

This is my next article to be discussed: the future of China within twenty years of great suffering. Stay tuned.

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A stock index futures will be the stabilizer

Saturday, April 24th, 2010

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

A-share market today, the biggest surprise in the first day of trading of stock index futures. The stock index futures trading today, the biggest Aspect is arranged in four contracts were long, IF1005, 1006,1009 and 1012 were the whole day gain 0.49%, 1.25%, 3.32% and 4.65%.

Some analysts said the gains so arranged that there is significant cross-market opportunities of arbitrage. Also analyzed that the high valuation of forward contracts, there is the risk of callbacks.

However, the main function of the futures market is price discovery, that discovery and the future of the contract period for the corresponding market price level. Therefore, when different contractual period of the contract price increases by the order from near to far zoom at the right time should be regarded as the price of the long, displaying investors optimistic about the future trend of the spot market.

The continuation of this trend in the circumstances, I believe A stock index futures will play the role of stabilizer in the spot market.

By heavyweight down as the impact of shocks down today A shares, investors and carefully marked volume shrinkage. To the closing stock index reported 3130.3 points, down 1.10%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) or two up four. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the previous trading day dropped to -4.61% -4.29%, the cumulative increase of 15 beautiful fell to 44.27 percent from 44.75 percent.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 16
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 22.15 2.67 16.6
1.33
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
17.74 -3.59
12.5
1.42
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
30.68 -12.92 13.5
2.28
000961
South Building 19.35 17.71 -8.47 8.1
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 25.50 -5.27 15.2
1.68
002208
Hefei Urban Construction 24.39 -8.55
20.3
1.20 (10 expected)

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average -4.61 14.4

"Beautiful 15" 51.24 44.27

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74%
166.05% (2.6605-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3130.30 16.64

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