-Action: education is the Thing in People

February 3rd, 2011

-Action: education is the Thing in People

The so-called "Employment is the Thing in People", this sentence is wrong at least a half, even said to be ignorant.

Although generally, national income is created by labor, increase employment is to increase the national income, however, to distinguish between two situations: First, under the simple labor employment growth, the second is under complex labor employment growth. The former achievements of the national income growth, even in the period of rapid population growth is very limited because of high population growth rate of 2%, however, only 0.5% in the domestic stage; the latter achievement of the national income growth, even in the population annual growth less than 0.2% even under low employment can still achieve a higher level.

Simple distinction between labor and labor complicated, of course, reflected in the labor efficiency. From 190 since 1820, according to World Bank data, by 2006, world GDP has grown to 66.6 trillion current international dollars, and 1820 of 694.4 billion yuan in 1990, compared to the international increase of up to 94.9 times the cumulative, net 1990 to 2006 international dollars roughly 35% of the depreciation of the existence of factors, the cumulative terms of constant prices should be close to 70 times the actual increase. At the same time, the world's total population growth to 65.2 million, an increase of only 5.26 times total. Considering the average life expectancy of the world's population to this has been extended to nearly 68 years, the corresponding increase of the world's total labor force of 9.6 times, from 4.4 billion to 4.22 billion people. Obviously, this period, growth in the labor force growth on the role of wealth began to lose its place is a rapid increase in labor efficiency. General situation is that labor force growth due to the wealth of contributions to growth of about 14% of total wealth growth, improve labor efficiency due to the wealth of contributions to growth of about 86% of total wealth growth.

Since the complex to enhance work efficiency of labor growth is the main source of income growth, develop skills and complex work is the result of education, on this stage is the result of higher education, therefore, "Employment is the Thing in People "This statement is definitely wrong. Correct to say of course, is: "Education is Basic Thing."

Unfortunately, China's gross enrollment rate of students (enrollment in regular higher education / school-age population) less than 30%, of which only 21.8% in 2006, while the U.S. was 81.8%, Australia 72.7%, Korea 91 %, even more than 47% in Mongolia.

To this end, my suggestion is that as soon as domestic students should be gross enrollment rates to 50%. Generally speaking, this means that the domestic general higher education in the number of students on the basis of the current 20 million to 35 million ~ 40 million. Considering the number of national school-age decreasing year by year, to maintain the scale, 10 years or more after some time domestic students will be able to improve gross enrollment rate to 70%.

As to how the rapid increase in domestic gross enrollment rate of students? The answer of course is to increase funding for higher education investment. However, not increase the population's education investment, or increase the commercialization of educational inputs, but to increase the Government's educational investment. The sustained and rapid economic growth and huge debt the central government and space, the Chinese government can handle. On second thought, since the ability to value the RMB 6 trillion of foreign exchange reserves over to the Americans to spend, they have the ability to run higher education in China.

Incidentally, the last decade the commercialization of higher domestic traveled road is very wrong. This not only increased the parents, especially in rural financial burden on parents, also resulted in the University of heavily indebted, and made even the professors who pay no medical treatment. Think about it, since banks have a problem the government needs assistance, then what the University of liabilities back to teachers and parents own it! This is very unfair.

It is worth mentioning that the Government increase investment to higher education is not the way ticket. The immediate benefits, the investment in education is also a domestic demand, increasing investment in education is to expand domestic demand, thus achieving revenue growth with income growth, not to mention the latter increase is often greater than the former. The long-term benefits, raising the gross enrollment rate of college students can contribute to upgrading of domestic industries, the focus on further enhancing the secondary industry and tertiary industry the proportion of non-agricultural population and the proportion of the total population, in the first industry revenue contribution rate is negative, and the current financial revenue almost entirely from one-third of the total population of non-agricultural population (urban population, which still includes a large number of agricultural population), which will surely become an important revenue promoter of sustainable growth .

Although I am not deputies, but for me, I will "gross enrollment rate of students rapidly increased," the two sessions at this year's proposal.

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Is the best time in the current macroeconomic fundamentals

February 1st, 2011

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

Pre-quarter GDP growth 11.65%, while the CPI is expected to rise about 2.3%. Relatively modest consumer price inflation and rapid economic growth point of view, the current is probably 7 years the best period in the domestic macroeconomic fundamentals. Although the volatile area of macroeconomic policy, but is expected to cool as interest rates, appreciation of the RMB is expected to heat up, the whole not too bad, only the real estate policy of bluff, intimidation of Lebanon's population.

A stock shrinkage EADS were mixed today, heavyweight laggard. To the closing stock index reported 3145.35 points, up 0.85%.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) 6 constituent stocks across the board gains across the board. After yesterday's minor adjustments, Hefei Urban Construction to start up again attack, another record high price. Although construction of a large single South platen, but clearly held down the afternoon to make income was up. Fu Wei-Yi Yang swallow FAW morbidity, a day up 2.95%. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from the previous day's rebound to 1.81% -0.138%, the cumulative increase of 15 nice pick-up from 51.03% to 53.98%.

A shares next week will be the ideal economic data, stock index futures, oil price adjustment, a significant increase quarterly performance inspired by the multiple positive factors out retaliatory rally, I believe there will be more beautiful performance in 15.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
April 9
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)
000528
Liugong 21.57 22.85 5.93 17.2
1.33
000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
18.08 -1.74
12.7
1.42
600449
Racing Industry 35.23
35.78 1.56 15.7
2.28
000961
South Building 19.35 19.70 1.81 9.0
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 27 .20
1.04 16.2
1.68
002 208
Hefei Urban Construction 26.82
2.24
22.4
1.20 (10 expected)

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average
1.81
15.5

"Beautiful 15" 51.24 53.98

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74%
213.84% (3.1384-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3145.35 17.20

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Housing supply to an increase or decrease

January 31st, 2011

-Action: this year is to increase housing supply or decrease in

Land and Housing 2010, released by the Ministry for the program for many investors know the truth of the real estate stocks suffered some really frightened. God! Last year, the domestic real estate development enterprises combined area of land acquisition was only 31,900 hectares or 319.06 million square meters, can be to plan for this year's total surprise, housing up to 180,000 hectares or 18 million square meters, is 5.64 times the former. Some investors exclaimed, to substantially increase the land supply, housing prices had not climbed down to the beat. So, the news came out, property stocks plunged, investors Baotoushucuan.

This is a great misunderstanding.

Land Department to plan for public housing, is the total amount of housing land, most of which are not used for commercial housing development, that is not the most open market through auction to developers. According to Ministry of Land and news websites, 18 million hectares of total land available for housing among the security room space accounted for Bacheng. This means that developers will be available for purchase only 36,000 hectares of land, higher than the 2009 purchase of land area developers to 12.8%, but less than 08 developers purchased 36,800 hectares of land area 2.2%, less than 07 In developer land acquisition area of 40,200 hectares or 10.5%, the average annual land developers purchased the previous three years 99% of the area. Taking into account 06 ~ 2009 sales of commercial space up to 54.6% cumulative growth (2006 to 606 million square meters in 2009 to 937 million square meters), while the cumulative area of land acquisition developers increase of -13.32% (in 2006 to 368 million square meters in 2009 to 319 million square meters), a minus, indicating the year for developers to purchase the land area is relatively greatly reduced.

Since this year's acquisition of the land area available for developers compared to sales is much less, the kind that the future of commercial housing prices will drop significantly less than the views of the evidence. In order to infer the future performance of the slide in property shares the same view untenable.

Why, then, that huge increase in government policy outside the housing developers for the amount of it?

From the following set of data is not difficult to find the answer.

Since 2000, domestic commercial housing development will occupy an area of housing construction in general the situation is as follows:

Years
Area of commercial housing construction
Housing construction area
Proportion
2000

6.5897 million square meters
26.5294 million square meters of 24.84%

2001
7.7214 million square meters of 27.6025 million square meters of 27.97%

20029.4104 million square meters

30.4428 million square meters of 30.91%

200311.6907 34.3742 100 000 000 100 000 000 square meters square meters 34.01%

200,414.0451 100 million square meters
37.6459 million square meters
37.31%

200,516.4445 100 million square meters
43.1123 million square meters
38.14%

200,619.4090 100 million square meters
46.2677 million square meters
41.95%

200,723.6318 100 million square meters
54.8542 million square meters
43.08%

200,827.4149 100 million square meters

61.6528 million square meters
44.47%

2009
31.9600 million square meters
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

This set of data above shows that, with the commercial housing development in the gross domestic housing construction area increasing the proportion of non-commodity housing has continued to decline, resulting in more and more domestic residents, including low income levels of residents, have through had been rapidly rising property market to meet housing needs. To a large extent, the reason why domestic prices rose rapidly, housing prices rose too fast reason why the masses are very satisfied with the answer on this.

This shows that the reason for this massive expansion of government beyond the policy of housing developers for the program, mainly to compensate for the historical event of default, accumulated in previous years. However, too many outstanding loans, even though the policy this year to plan for massive expansion of housing is still far from meeting the real needs. This is why the majority of those surveyed think that the Government should also expand the housing supply of the main reasons of policy.

Next, as the expansion of housing supply after the policy can not meet the potential needs, together with housing policy purchasers or users and purchasers of commercial houses had existed between the significant income segment, it is difficult to expect land Department of Housing for the program can play the role of inhibition of property prices.

Released from the local government for the land plan, reports that Shanghai has announced for this year's housing program, at 1100 hectares (approximately by 3% over last year) of the total supply, the security room, studio commercial housing reform, and medium and small unit other three sites accounted for a total of 770 hectares; to include medium and small unit and "non-ordinary residence" of goods, including 400 hectares of residential land is only for the supply of four percent a year or so. This will definitely increase the demand and supply gap in Shanghai property market.

As for other means of inhibitory effect on property prices, based on past experience, I am afraid that rule this year, not next year rule. The so-called holding back urine, urinary 3 times a day and the day the results of urine 9 reduction in the number only, but the urine or as much.

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Stock index futures and promote polarization is misleading

January 10th, 2011

-Action: a beautiful 15 today Aspect

1 As expected Friday, the stimulation of multiple good news, today's A shares Tiaokonggaokai, a strong upside heavy volume stock index closed at 3123.80 points, rose 2.09%. Hang Seng Index Hong Kong stocks up 0.88% day, significantly behind the A shares. It appears that long-awaited A-share market finally independent grand start.

Today, beautiful 15 (reduced version) 3 up 1 down a suspension. South building rise about 2.31%, horse racing industry a little rest, or 0.73%. To close in the third period pretty average cumulative increase of 15 from yesterday 1.78% to 2.78%, a beautiful 15 cumulative increase of 53.93 percent from yesterday rose to 55.44 percent.

A stock index futures, said a major positive is not an exaggeration. Rather, not only short-term positive, but also long-term good. The so-called short-term positive, because of the international experience shows that the initial listing of stock index futures for the stock market out of the wave is normally rally. The so-called long-term good, it is focused on the basic functions of stock index futures. This feature is regarded as price discovery, price discovery and is a two-way, you can find opportunities for price increases, also found that the risk of price declines.

However, the current interpretation of the stock index futures market is not very professional, the focus is the misunderstanding that will promote market polarization index futures: constituent stocks in the good underlying index, while other stocks bearish trend.

Discussed above, the basic functions of stock index futures, stock index means that the subject is not influenced by movements in stock index futures, but the impact of the underlying stock index futures.

The factors affecting stock index futures, of course, with the contract period equivalent to the multiple forward-looking factors, such as macroeconomic trends, the international financial market trends, a variety of trading tools to Price relations, industry events and so on.

Thus, an attractive stock must not be the Friends of the professional interpretation of the extremely misleading. Experience tells us that any large market, we need heavyweight blue chip, or an early rise, but with the market developing in depth, broader market is up blue chips will not be higher than the small-cap blue-chip growth stocks. Past, the future remains the same.

The third phase of "beautiful 15" (reduced version) Briefing

Code
Referred to as 3 04 months
March 29
cumulative gains
Dynamic price-earnings ratio
09 per share

Close (yuan) close (dollars)
(%)
(Times)
Income (yuan)

000528
Liugong 21.57 22 .12 2.55 16.6
1.33

000589
Qian Luntai 18.40
17.60 -4.35
12.4
1.42

600449
Racing Industry 35.23
39.65 12.55 16.7
2.38

000961
South Building 19.35 19.95 3.10 9.2
2.18 (10 expected)

600742 FAW-rich dimension
26.92 26.93
0.04 16.0
1.68

The third phase of "beautiful 15" average
2.78
14.2

"Beautiful 15" 51.24 55.44

Beautiful 15 leading index 304.74 %
238.05% (3.3805-fold)

The Shanghai Composite Index 3123.80 16.40

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There is no asset price bubble in China

December 20th, 2010

Qing Yi: China's asset price bubble does not exist
[Japanese land price bubble burst in the real reasons (below)]

Fallen leaves will shatter the head? Frankly speaking, only those dissatisfied with a bottle, shake it all day in a half bottle things (children) do (children) of people would be face value. Worse, over-exaggerated the risk of the Chinese economy has become quite common in economic life phenomenon, including academics and decision-making. However, this does nothing to risk control, it touches will be a serious impediment to economic health.

Economists concerned about asset price bubble is actually paying attention to loan quality, and therefore decided to financial security. Loan quality is usually determined by the collateral. As a common collateral, land and stock prices is a measure of asset price bubbles and not. It said the asset price bubble, in fact, talking about the land price bubble and stock price bubble.

Yes, because in Japan most of the land as collateral for loans, while banks have a large number of holdings, land and stock prices rise over after the bubble burst there is indeed cause the Japanese economy since the nineties of the last century into a long-term downturn reasons. Land prices continued to fall by about collateral, banks surge in bad loans, to prevent further deterioration of the capital adequacy ratio, even if the long-term interest rate is zero, it can not prevent long-term loans of negative growth. This is the so-called zero interest rate Japan's economy, zero growth. However, the domestic equity as collateral for loans to be minimal, with a loan pledge of goods in the past, all for the price of equity is far below the market price of the Restricted Shares, and in calculating the value of the collateral Shi You are fully underestimated, no doubt, stock prices will not constitute a domestic asset price bubbles.

As for the land, taking into account the accumulated sales since 1986, commercial property (including commercial residential and commercial buildings) occupied 413 acres of land at best, even if two million yuan per mu according to the weighted average price calculation (previously used for commercial housing development The average land price of less than 100 yuan / mu, or even the year 2000 less than 500,000 yuan / mu), is private land holdings listed total assets total more than 8.3 trillion yuan, however, the corresponding premium rate (total premium on GDP ratio), only 25%, equivalent to only mature market one-seventh of the national average. For base reasons, the smaller base of assets and the land base of civil larger between GDP, even though the two annual growth rate of the same land ratio also decreased year by year. Therefore, there is no evidence that there exists land asset bubbles.

I would like to remind you that the premium rate to talk about aside land asset bubbles is not very professional.

Address the land ratio, the United States most years less than 100%, the UK most years 80% to 200% swing, while Japan rose in 1980 after more than 300%. According to Japanese scholars introduced in Japan in 1990, private land assets 2,400 trillion yen, equivalent to 341.14 trillion yen, then the official GDP statistics of 700%. Although the 1997 devaluation of land assets, to 1,700 trillion yen, but compared with the current GDP ratio as high as 441 percent premium.

Since 1986, total domestic sales of commercial area of 5.5 billion square meters, according to two times the average volume rate of land, occupied land area of commercial housing sold approximately 2.75 billion square meters in about, or about 413 million mu. It is worth noting in this commercial houses occupy 413 mu of land which have so far still in the proportion of multi-state collateral, but Liu Cheng, and mortgage of land replacement cost several times more than the cost of a mortgage or even 10 times. In this case, the private holdings of public land prices on the quality of bank loans is quite positive, where we talk about asset price bubbles!

To a large extent, not only the domestic private holdings of the current asset price of land there is no risk of a bubble, but a longer period of time in the future will not appear. The reason is the future trend of land prices are still rising, first transformation of the old with the relocation compensation costs which continue to promote the existing urban land prices, followed by rising food prices to promote the future of new urban land prices. On the other hand, the next 15 to 20 years as the expected increase in commercial housing land is 3 to 4 times the stock of the Government to increase land supply and land sales revenue growth, can also suppress the risk of domestic land assets price bubble to play an active effect.

From a psychological point of view, the reason that people exaggerate the risk, often due to lack of confidence, complacency or laziness. All these are unhealthy psychological characteristics.

Over-inflated asset price bubble in the domestic land-harm is: If you do not rush in labor costs due to the shortage of labor supply rose sharply prior to accelerate the commercial housing development, then, on the one hand all future construction materials will be accompanied by rising labor costs rise, so developers cost is high; the other hand, the current excess liquidity (the so-called lack of liquidity tightening is only man-made or create a false impression) will as the means of production and the overall rise in consumer prices, the evolution of the flow of depreciation as well as liquidity shortages, so that the purchasing power of existing commercial houses a substantial decline in the whole society. By that time, not only land be cut down, and commodity prices will rise a new retaliatory.

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